Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For MTG Co., Ltd. (TSE:7806) After Its Yearly Results

Last week, you might have seen that MTG Co., Ltd. (TSE:7806) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.7% to JP¥7,230 in the past week. MTG reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of JP¥144b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥283, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MTG after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from MTG's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥180.3b in 2027. This reflects a major 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 20% to JP¥340. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥179.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥345 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for MTG

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥10,540. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic MTG analyst has a price target of JP¥11,300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥9,100. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting MTG is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 26% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 25% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that MTG is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for MTG going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for MTG that you need to be mindful of.

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