What ING Groep Doubters Overlooked

If ING Groep sat on your watchlist instead of in your brokerage account, the past few months may feel expensive. Holding ING Groep from the start of the year would have returned 29.3%, including dividends. That outcome now looks neatly aligned with headlines about fresh buybacks, expanding fee income and subscription banking. The real puzzle is simpler. If the bank’s pivot away from net interest income was on record at the start, what helped signal it might actually stick?

On Simply Wall St, a Narrative is an investor's thesis written down: the reasoning, plus the numbers it rests on. Run those numbers and you get an estimated Fair Value.

ING Groep has already moved. See which of 199 high quality undervalued stocks still trade below our estimates.

The Argument You Would Have Been Weighing Up On ING Groep

The shares cost €24.01 at the start of the period. ING Groep sat between two clear stories about what its earnings mix might look like a few years out.

On the bullish side, User argued that ING could lead peers in shifting toward fee income. That narrative put Fair Value at €27.92 and rested on assumptions of 9.0% revenue growth and a 28.0% profit margin over a 3-year window.

The more cautious view saw upside capped by regulation, funding costs and margin pressure. That case assumed 8.9% revenue growth, a 27.1% margin and a future P/E of 10.1x, producing a Fair Value of €22.2 that sat below the market price.

What The Results Changed For The ING Groep Thesis

The rollout of ING Groep’s subscription banking model across nine markets, plus acquisitions in wealth and asset management, supported the optimistic case that fee income would gain weight. Measured results pointed in the same direction. Revenue and profit both rose between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026, even as net margin slipped slightly from 32.1% to 31.8%. Overall, the evidence cut both ways.

The hinge assumption here was not just higher fees, but how profitable each new euro would be. For any other bank, track the mix shift toward non interest income, then compare it with net margin trends to see whether the new business model is earning its keep.

What ING Groep’s Price Now Asks You To Believe

ING Groep now trades at €30.12, after a 29.3% total return from the start of the year. The bearish analyst Narrative on Simply Wall St places its Fair Value below that level, based on a view that capital allocation choices and risk transfer tools may carry more fragility than the headline numbers suggest.

At today’s price, you are effectively assuming that ING Groep can keep high returns flowing from its digital model, fee mix and capital returns. The question is how that assumption holds up against this Narrative’s concern that restructuring, regulatory buffers and credit concentrations could pull those returns away from current guidance.

"The current valuation implies that ING Groep shares already discount a business generating ROTE above 16% with CET1 around 13% and recurring high capital returns, so only modest further share price upside is priced in if the company simply delivers on its stated plans."

One Narrative disagrees with today's price. → See where this Narrative says ING Groep should trade

Where ING Groep’s Playbook Points Next

If ING Groep helped you think differently about digital banking, keep going. The same shift toward mobile first finance is unfolding in quieter corners.

In one market, a fully online lender has built banking around a single smartphone app. No branches, no paper forms, just an account that opens quickly.

Instead of chasing fees through branch networks, this operator leans on software and automation. Lower servicing demands help support simpler, more accessible products for everyday use.

The puzzle for you is simple. If ING Groep’s digital mix matters, how might a bank built mobile first from day one reshape expectations again?

It is written up in full, assumptions and all. → Explore the Narrative that puts this company 72% above its price

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com