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To own Tootsie Roll Industries, you have to believe in a fairly simple story. This is a branded confectioner that relies on execution, efficient manufacturing and disciplined pricing rather than big acquisitions or heavy capital projects. The latest quarter fits that pattern on the revenue side, with third quarter and nine month sales and revenue figures staying close to last year, while profit and basic EPS from continuing operations declined. The near term question is whether management can protect earnings quality in a cost heavy environment when top line demand is only inching forward.
In the short term, the key catalysts are operational. That includes how effectively Tootsie Roll Industries manages input costs, runs its plants and uses its broad distribution network across supermarkets, dollar stores and online channels. The reported drop in net income and lower net profit margins compared with last year point to pressure on profitability rather than demand. That is important when the stock already trades on a P/E of 34.4x, above both peer and industry averages, because any further hit to returns on equity or earnings quality would make that valuation harder to justify.
Even so, there is a quieter issue in the background that could matter more for long term shareholders if ...
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