Replimune Group (REPL) On TUDRIQEV Approval And Why Valuation Still Divides Views

Replimune Group (REPL) has attracted investor attention after a sharp share price move over the past month, with the stock up about 92% and roughly 46% over the past 3 months.

That surge has come after a much stronger run over 2024, with Replimune Group posting a year-to-date share price return of about 146% and a 1-year total shareholder return of roughly 143%. The latest 1-day move was slightly negative, which suggests momentum has been building over the medium term while shorter term sentiment cools around the current US$21.89 level.

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Replimune Group now trades only slightly below average analyst targets, yet intrinsic value estimates point to a much steeper discount. Is the recent surge closing a genuine gap, or is it reflecting the market’s caution on a loss-making biotech?

Most Popular Narrative: 6% Undervalued

Against Replimune Group's last close at $21.89, the analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St points to a fair value of about $23.33, framing the recent rally as still leaving some upside according to those long range forecasts.

The FDA accelerated approval of TUDRIQEV in combination with nivolumab for unresectable advanced cutaneous melanoma that progressed on a PD-1 regimen opens access to an estimated 10,000 US patients each year and creates a new revenue stream that is not yet fully reflected in Replimune Group’s reported earnings.

The broader RPx pipeline, including the REVEAL registration-directed trial of RP2 in metastatic uveal melanoma and studies in hepatocellular and biliary tract cancers, targets tumor types where patients have limited options. If successful, these programs could add new indications and diversify Replimune Group’s potential future revenue base beyond advanced melanoma.

See why 1 investors see Replimune Group as 6% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $23.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the TUDRIQEV story hinges on confirmatory trial success and a smooth launch, where weak survival data or slower hospital adoption could quickly unwind this Replimune Group narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Replimune Group narrative.

Another View: Replimune Group Looks Expensive On Book Value

The SWS DCF model suggests Replimune Group trades well below estimated future cash flow value, yet the simple price tag tells a very different story. On a P/B of 10.1x versus 1.8x for the wider US Biotechs group and about 7x for direct peers, the stock screens as rich on balance sheet terms. Is the premium a fair price for its pipeline risk, or is it stretching what the assets can justify?

See what the numbers say about this price in our valuation breakdown, starting with See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Mixed signals around Replimune Group can feel exciting and uncomfortable at the same time. Move quickly, review the underlying data, and pressure test both the upside story and the downside risk using our breakdown of 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

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