₪202: That's What Analysts Think Nayax Ltd. (TLV:NYAX) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

It's been a good week for Nayax Ltd. (TLV:NYAX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 9.0% to ₪164. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of US$128m being 4.7% less than what the analysts had been modelling. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nayax from five analysts is for revenues of US$725.4m in 2027. If met, it would imply a huge 52% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 1,415% to US$1.32. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$709.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.25 in 2027. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Nayax

As a result, it might be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have cut their price target 7.6% to ₪202, which could suggest the forecast improvement in performance is not expected to last. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Nayax, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₪211 and the most bearish at ₪192 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Nayax's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 40% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 27% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Nayax is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Nayax's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Nayax's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Nayax going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Nayax has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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