Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are nearly flat early Friday as Wall Street digests an intense week of geopolitical maneuvering, inflation data, and the dramatic resignation of Nvidia Corp.‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO.

The Polymarket traders, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, are leaning slightly bullish for the Nov. 13 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?” contract currently reflects a 55% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing a muted futures market against sliding oil prices and high-profile corporate drama:

• Flat Index Futures: Equity futures are showing little direction ahead of the opening bell. The S&P 500 futures edged up 0.07%, and Dow Jones futures ticked 0.04% higher. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.04%, and Russell 2000 futures were flat.
• Nvidia Turmoil: Nvidia shares remain under heavy pressure, down 1.10% overnight, following Thursday’s sudden resignation of CEO Jensen Huang amid allegations of extramarital affairs and potential ties to Chinese intelligence. Colette Kress has stepped in as interim CEO.
• Retreating Oil: Energy prices continued to slide; Brent crude dropped 0.26% to $95.57 a barrel, and WTI crude fell 0.57% to $88.23 a barrel.
• Earnings & Eco Data: Friday’s economic docket includes the Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET. The corporate calendar is relatively light, featuring international financial and resource companies like Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (NYSE:SMFG), Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:MFG), and Twenty One Capital Inc. (NYSE:XXI).

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

According to market analyst Louis Navellier, investors should hold Nvidia through its upcoming third-quarter earnings report, where the company is forecasted to post 91.2% sales growth and 90.3% earnings growth.

Navellier argues that despite the “incredible tragedy” of Huang’s departure, a shocking headline alone is not a reason to abandon a fundamentally strong investment. He notes that the combination of Nvidia’s forecasted growth and its current valuation is difficult to replicate elsewhere in the market.

On the energy front, Navellier expects crude oil prices—which have softened recently—to firm up by February as seasonal demand returns, keeping him bullish on refiners, integrated energy companies, and tanker stocks.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Nov. 12 Polymarket contract resolved “Down.” The contract recorded $35,211 in total trading volume.

On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. SPY was down 0.35% to $757.12, while QQQ declined 0.32% to $688.17. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.38% lower at $522.47.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Photo courtesy: Shutterstock