Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A.'s (BME:CAF) Third-Quarter Report

Shareholders might have noticed that Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. (BME:CAF) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.7% to €69.00 in the past week. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of €1.1b coming in 5.0% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of €4.27, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles are now predicting revenues of €5.37b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a solid 8.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 26% to €6.54. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €5.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.59 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €85.49. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles analyst has a price target of €115 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €67.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €85.49, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles you should be aware of.

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