Jane Street MSTR holdings increased 54%, and the size of options hedging more than tripled

According to Woofun AI, trading giant Jane Street significantly increased its position on MSTR.US (Strategy) in the third quarter, and its holdings surged 53.8% to 4,119,097 shares as of September 30.

This data comes from the 13F documents submitted by the agency on Thursday, which revealed the aggressive layout and complex hedging strategies of large market makers in Bitcoin proxy stocks. Notably, despite a sharp rise in stock holdings, Jane Street's options holdings during the same period were more than three times larger than stock holdings, suggesting that its core motive may not be simply directional investment, but serve a huge market making and risk management business.

This “segregated stock term” holding structure provides key clues for interpreting the true intentions of institutional funds in crypto-related assets, and has also triggered the market to pay close attention to the direction of its subsequent operations. Four days before the November 16 disclosure deadline, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially accepted the report at 4:04 p.m. ET, marking the preliminary finalization of institutional position data for the quarter.

An in-depth analysis of Jane Street's position details reveals a huge asymmetry between the value of its shares and the size of the options hedging. Based on the September 30 share price of $153.09, these 4,119,097 Strategy shares are worth approximately $630.6 million.

Since then, however, Strategy's stock price has fallen by about 25%, and the value of the same stock holdings has shrunk to around $471 million after being re-valued at Thursday's closing price of $114.41. By contrast, Jane Street reported a holdings of only 2,677,622 shares on June 30, which was valued at $232.8 billion at the time, representing a net increase of 1,441,475 shares during the third quarter. More notable is its options position: the document lists call options covering 13,573,000 Strategy shares, and put options covering 13,991,800 shares. These options contracts cover a huge number of stocks, each more than three times the size of the company's common shares.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this huge exposure to options is likely to be used to hedge risks in the options and market making business rather than directly investing in the company's fundamentals. This report is actually a comprehensive report, covering the holdings of seven management institutions, including Jane Street Capital, Jane Street Options, and Jane Street Global Trading, and thus reflects the collective decisions of the entire group. Authorized signatory Jeremy Kahn signed the document in New York on November 12. The table lists up to 14,764 positions with a total value of $1.19 trillion, demonstrating Jane Street's huge size in the global financial market.

Turning one's gaze to other well-known institutions, one can see that the market's division over Strategy is growing. In the early 13F filing submitted on Thursday, Jane Street's 53.8% increase in shareholding ratio was the highest of any large Strategy stock holder. Capital International Investors, a subsidiary of the Capital Group, boosted its holdings by 4.5% to 36,467,109 shares. Based on Thursday's closing price, these stocks are worth approximately US$4.17 billion, making them among the largest institutional holders. Invesco (Invesco), on the other hand, increased its shareholding ratio by 10.9% to 10,362,698 shares, worth about US$1.19 billion, showing a desire to continue increasing positions.

However, Renaissance Technologies (Renaissance Technologies) adopted a very different strategy, cutting its holdings by 41% to 1,515,560 shares, worth approximately $173 million.

Despite reducing its MSTR holdings, Renaissance Tech has retained its mid-year reported spot Bitcoin ETF holdings, including BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US). Earlier reports indicated that JPMorgan Chase (JPMorgan, JPMorgan) raised its shareholding ratio in Strategy by 36% to 848,932 shares, while also holding 11.4 million IBIT shares, which are worth around $4.6 billion at Thursday's closing price.

Additionally, Bank of New York Mellon disclosed its position in Strive (ASST.US) in another early 13F filing. These diverse operations show that there are significant differences in how different institutions obtain exposure to Bitcoin and the valuation logic of MSTR.

The time window for regulatory disclosure is intertwined with market events, making it more difficult to interpret position data. Agencies such as Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs), Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley), Millennium, and Mubadala are still required to submit quarterly 13F reports until the November 16 deadline. Those institutions that have decision-making power over $100 million in 13F securities investments have 45 days to disclose their positions. This period was originally November 14, which is a Saturday, so the actual deadline is Monday.

Notably, the September 30 data predates MSCI's decision this week to remove Strategy from its US index. This move will force index funds to sell related stocks by November 30, which could put downward pressure on stock prices.

At the same time, these figures also predate the stock's downward trend since the end of the quarter. The report to be submitted on Monday will show the positions of other large holders on the same date, rather than the current real-time position status. This means that when analyzing these data, investors must take into account the passive selling pressure that may be caused by the MSCI exclusion event, as well as the dynamic adjustments that institutions may make after the end of the quarter.

This time difference makes the 13F file more like a snapshot of history than an immediate guide to future trends.

This series of position changes is not only a reflection of institutional risk management, but also a microcosm of the market's long-term differences over Bitcoin's value.