Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Nvidia is once again negative, the domestic chain strengthens, and innovative drugs are being further hyped up around expectations

[Anatomy Dashboard]

In the context of the US raising interest rates in December, capital continues to be cautious. At the same time, the repeated repetition of technology stocks also brought great uncertainty to the market. Hong Kong stocks jumped over 1.26% today.

Hwang In-hoon's estimate is troublesome this time, and a new scandal has broken out. The board of directors is planning to dismiss him. It is likely that the CEO position will not be guaranteed this time. The media is already actively reporting on the candidate for his successor. Nvidia's latest pre-market drop was over 6%. The biggest problem is that it is stuck at the current sensitive point. After the Democratic Party won the midterm elections, it made every effort to directly talk about national security, take the lead and introduce various laws that are unfriendly to us. Some of these incidents have increased the possibility that the US will crack down on chip smuggling to China. Another is that Chinese AI companies are worried that the US will take the opportunity to restrict remote use of advanced chips. Today, Ali (09988) plummeted 6.76%. I don't know if this is related; Tencent (00700) also dropped more than 2%.

According to the evolution of this situation, the proposal mentioned in yesterday's essay about Microsoft's desire to relax the procurement of Chinese optical modules is quite in doubt. As a result, Cambridge Technology (06166), Shenghong Technology (02476), Roboco (03757), Haiguang Xinzheng (01191), and Changfei (06869) all fell by more than 6% after rising yesterday.

It has been said for a long time that technology that relies on overseas chains is unreliable, because fate is in the hands of others, and commercial profits are quite weak in the face of politics. Otherwise, Europe would not have preferred to spend huge sums of money to buy oil and gas from other countries rather than Russian cheap energy. Recently, the issue of EU countries banning equipment from Chinese companies has also surfaced. With the rise of the Democratic Party, Europe seems quite stiff again.

Therefore, in the end, the development of technology still has to rely on independence and autonomy, and firmly follow the path of domestically produced and controllable. Today, the strongest technology is all of these varieties, such as Tianshu Smart Core (09903): Training+Inference GPUs, which take on the computing power gap of domestic cloud manufacturers, rising nearly 9%; Bijiao Technology (06082): High computing power training GPUs, intelligent computing centers replace the main line, increasing by more than 5%; Changguang Chenxin (03277): high-end industrial machine vision and scientific instrument CMOS image sensors (CIS) are being replaced, up more than 6%.

Anthropic's current IPO target valuation is about 1.4 trillion US dollars, and the stock is expected to be listed and traded on the NASDAQ on November 19. In addition, Anthropic is also planning to sell stocks in Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and some European countries, which is the pace of global monetization.

China is also speeding up the large-scale model process. According to media reports, the ByteSeed team is pre-training a model with parameters up to 10 trillion, which is comparable to Anthropic's highest-end model. Byte Zhang Yiming said that Byte has the ability to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic, but to actually match cutting-edge technology “it will be until 2029 or 2030 at the earliest”; the current gap is that the size of the pre-training data set is still small. It feels quite low-key. Once it reaches Anthropic levels, China's AI will advance greatly.

A letter from the seven co-founders to investors was placed on the first page of Anthropic's 335-page prospectus. The letter mentioned that among the four directions where AI is most likely to improve human life, biology and medicine rank first, and cancer, Alzheimer's disease, and heart disease are all named. This brings more narratives to AI pharmaceutical companies, and the biggest benefit is still the CXO category, because AI companies can build their own laboratories to make discoveries, but it is difficult to build their own factory that meets GMP requirements. Heavy assets, long cycles, and regulatory records cannot be eliminated. Therefore, the further the pipeline is pushed back, the more value is concentrated in the hands of companies with production capacity. Yao Ming Kangde (02359)'s revenue for the first three quarters of 2026 was 45.37 billion yuan, up 39%, and net profit of 19.398 billion yuan, up 61%. The revenue for the three quarters surpassed last year, with on-hand orders of 76.74 billion yuan, an increase of 36.4% over the previous year. The company was also recently removed from the US 1260H list, which today rose more than 2%; several leading CXOs raised their annual guidance. Pharmaceutical Biotech (02269) raised revenue growth expectations from 16% to 20% to 23%, Kanglong Chemical (03759) from 12% — 18% mentioned 15% — 20%, and order visibility is their common motivation. Also, Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) and Gloria Ying (06821) are all beneficial varieties.

Innovative drugs continue to speculate. Baoji Pharmaceutical-B (02659) KJ103 was accepted by the NDA on June 4 and included in priority review+breakthrough therapy. It is the first in China and the first in the world to complete phase III IgG degrading enzyme. There is no competition on the racetrack, and the scarcity is extremely strong. The company's original guideline was that it was expected to be approved in 2027. It is estimated that the market is about to finish the game review and an approval announcement will be issued at any time. If approved, KJ103 can be used in combination with KJ103 to form a collaborative layout of “degrading enzymes+antibodies”, which will expand a larger market for autoimmune diseases; McMedical-B (02335) also mentioned to everyone a few days ago. The speculation is that in the critical phase III clinical trial of the core product MT1013, all participants have completed the study, treatment, and follow-up of all trial plans. The program, and the group has already been formed. What is the game Unraveling the data, it has risen by more than 7% today; there is also Zaiding Pharmaceutical (09688): The ACAAI conference is being held from 11.12 to 11.16 local time in the US. The poster for the company ZL-1503 is scheduled to be released on the 13th. It is IL-13+IL-31Rα dual antibody, which also explores the two pathways of inflammation+itching. The market is betting on this data, which is up nearly 3% today.

Communication Holdings (02636) announced that the company partially exercised its over-allotment rights to raise net capital of approximately HK$227.1 million by issuing additional H shares. The stable global sale price period ends on November 11, 2026. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's securities list has been adjusted and will take effect from November 12, 2026. Transcom Holdings will generally explode, with a sharp increase of more than 22%.

[Section Focus]

According to the Bank of America Securities Research Report, TSMC's board of directors recently approved a capital budget of 41 billion US dollars, driving an 116% year-on-year increase in the approved 2026 budget. Of this, 56% was used to expand and upgrade advanced pre-production processes, accounting for a new high since 2022, reflecting the accelerated expansion of 3 nm and 2 nm production capacity. TSMC's cumulative approved capital budget growth rate has risen to 50% year over year, higher than the long-term trend of 40% to 45%. Bank of America predicts that capital expenditure in 2027 may reach 80 billion to 90 billion US dollars, higher than the 2026 forecast of 62 billion US dollars; the bank currently predicts 83 billion US dollars in 2027, and the market agrees that it is about 80 billion US dollars.

TSMC increased capital expenditure to benefit TSMC's ASMPT (00522) supply chain; it is indirectly driving similar SMIC (00981) and Huahong Hongli (01347).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Kanglong Chemical (03759): Overseas subsidiaries plan to participate in the continuous promotion of the overseas equity investment fund CDMO pipeline with $10 million

Recently, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to pledge $10 million to participate in HJ Double Helix Fund L.P., to strengthen the investment layout of the biomedical industry. The company announced that for the first three quarters of 2026, it achieved revenue of 12.003 billion yuan (+19.01%), net profit of 1,247 million yuan (+9.31%), net profit of non-return to mother of 1,181 million yuan (+14.20%); achieved revenue of 4.408 billion yuan (+20.94%) in a single Q3, net profit of 497 million yuan (+13.06%), net profit of non-return to mother of 488 million yuan (+22.74%).

Comment: The fund mainly invests in equity and equity-related investments in the global biotechnology sector, focusing on nucleic acid drugs, cell and gene therapy, and investment opportunities in their upstream and/or downstream industries. It is beneficial to the company's subsequent development. The company's revenue and core profit have maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. Laboratory services are expected to continue to grow steadily as new orders are gradually converted.

Laboratory services achieved revenue of 7.222 billion yuan (+15.05%) in the first three quarters, and revenue of 2,589 billion yuan (+17.5%) in a single Q3. The year-on-year growth rate was higher than the overall level of the previous three quarters. The gross margin of the sector in the first three quarters was 40.23%, down 2.39pct year on year, mainly affected by the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar. On the order side, new orders increased by more than 25% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and customer demand continued to be released, providing support for subsequent project execution. CDMO services achieved revenue of 3.102 billion yuan (+31.72%), gross margin of 27.83%, an increase of 2.15 pct; single Q3 achieved revenue of 1,218 billion yuan (+30.1%), up 20.4% month-on-month, and gross margin increased to 31.1%, increasing 1.6 pct and 3.9 pct year-on-month respectively, and realized simultaneous growth in business scale and profit improvement. New orders in the sector increased by more than 40% year-on-year in the first three quarters. The small-molecule CDMO pipeline continued to advance, and demand for mid to late clinical and commercial production remained positive. In the third quarter, the Ningbo API production workshop once again passed the FDA on-site inspection, further strengthening the global commercial supply capacity. Order growth and project transformation are expected to continue to support CDMO volume and improve the company's overall profit level. Clinical research services achieved revenue of 1,659 billion yuan (+15.22%) in the first three quarters, with gross margin of 10.96%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.83 pct; Q3 achieved revenue of 590 million yuan (+18.0%), further increasing revenue growth. As the revenue scale expanded, Q3 gross margin increased to 13.1%, up 2.3 pct and 1.0 pct year-on-year, respectively, and the trend of improving profits gradually became apparent. The company's new orders increased by more than 25% year over year, providing a guarantee for subsequent revenue growth. The conversion of new orders and the release of scale effects are expected to drive continuous improvement in the revenue and profitability of clinical research services. In summary, considering the company's integrated service capabilities, CDMO order accumulation, and commercialization project volume, it is expected to increase the visibility of medium-term profit growth, and I am optimistic about the company's CDMO business order conversion and commercialization project volume.