The stock price dives! Nebius (NBIS.US) full-year revenue guidance falls short of expectations, and next year's capital expenditure guidance exceeds 40 billion US dollars, making it difficult to ease concerns about AI spending and financing

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Nebius (NBIS.US) released its financial report for the third quarter of 2026 up to September 30 before the market on November 12: revenue of US$980.8 million, surging 571% year on year, exceeding the agreed expectations (approximately $907.5 million) of 8%; adjusted EBITDA of US$465.8 million, which was significantly higher than the expected loss of US$357.4 million; adjusted net profit of US$90.9 million, far better than the market expected loss of US$271.4 million.

Under GAAP, net loss from continuing operations was $37.5 million and loss per diluted share was $0.13; operating profit was corrected to $50.4 million, mainly due to interest expenses of $1125 million and one-time conversion costs of $49.5 million in convertible bonds — the operating level was already profitable, and book losses came from the financing side. Net profit of US$393.3 million for the first three quarters will also have to be split: this includes revaluation gains of US$780.6 million from equity investment. After exclusion, the operating caliber was still at a loss.

The guidance is a double-edged sword for this season: the company expects revenue for the full year of 2026 to be at the low end of the $3 billion to $3.4 billion guidance range, below market expectations of about $3.37 billion; however, it also provides a forecast of 2027 revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion — about four times that of 2026, and expects to achieve a break-even before tax by the end of 2027. The 2027 capital expenditure guidance is as high as $40 billion — $45 billion.

The volume of expansion and financing is at the core of the story: capital expenses for the first three quarters were US$15.43 billion; the company said that customers were locking in production capacity with longer contracts, higher prices, and more advance payments, and that advance payments covered more than 100% of the capital expenses of related contracts — contract liabilities increased by US$7.83 billion in the first three quarters. The balance sheet expanded at the same time: total assets increased from $12.43 billion at the beginning of the year to $38.74 billion, cash of $7.43 billion, and non-current debt of $14 billion.

In response to the market focus “How to finance AI construction”, CEO Volozh responded positively in a shareholder letter: the new contract in the third quarter was signed for a longer period, higher price, and more advance payments. The total value of new contracts signed since the third quarter has exceeded 12 billion US dollars, and advance payments cover more than 100% of related capital expenses (50% to 60% in the second quarter); advance payments and investment-grade contract asset collateral financing are expected to cover 75% to 85% of the capital expenditure of 40 billion to 45 billion dollars in 2027, and the advance payment scale is expected to be around 2026 That's an increase of $10 billion to $17 billion to $20 billion in 2027. Expanding customer base: Databricks, Datadog, Palantir, and Snowflake sign multi-year agreements for the first time. The shareholders' letter also stated that the US election results are not expected to affect the construction of its new construction and hosting site.

After the release of the financial report, as of press release, it had fallen by about 10% before the market; the company's stock price pulled back sharply with AI concept stocks in the previous week.