MSCI (MSCI.US) excludes the three major treasury companies, and the financing and buying model faces heavy pressure

According to Woofun AI, MSCI (MSCI.US) announced the November 2026 index review results. Strategy (MSTR.US), Metaplanet, and Upexi (UPXI.US) were all excluded, and the relevant adjustments will take effect after the market closes on November 30.

This exclusion marks the official implementation of MSCI's new “non-operating company” framework. Last year, MSCI proposed excluding treasury companies with digital assets accounting for 50% or more of total assets from the index. In January of this year, the plan was not implemented, and the scope of the review was later extended to “non-operating companies” with different asset classes. On October 15, MSCI announced the adoption of the new framework, which will be implemented in accordance with the November Index Review. The new framework first examines operating assets, then combines indicators such as operating expenses, operating cash flow, changes in fair value, and dependence on external financing to determine whether the company is closer to an investment tool. Existing constituent stocks will be removed if they have not passed the screening in the last two annual reporting periods. For treasury companies, retaining software, hospitality, or consumer goods businesses may not be enough to maintain index eligibility.

If the company's assets are mainly tokens, and its financial performance mainly fluctuates with currency prices, expansion, and relies on external financing, the existing business may not be enough to change the screening results. Ultimately, Strategy, Metaplanet, and Upexi failed to maintain index eligibility, while ETH treasury company SharpLink (SBET.US) is still on the watch list and is not included in the scope of this removal.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, after the three companies were eliminated, funds tracking the relevant indices needed to adjust their positions, which directly led to a decrease in allocation requirements. Among them, Strategy's potential selling pressure received the most attention. The company disclosed in an earlier inquiry response that the fund tracking the MSCI Global Investable Markets Index (GIMI) holds approximately 13 million shares of MSTR, accounting for 3.1% of its basic share capital. Based on the closing price of $121.07 on November 10, the market value of this share is approximately $1.57 billion. J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.US) predicted last year that Strategy's exclusion from MSCI could trigger sales of about $2.8 billion, and if other major index vendors follow suit, the scale could increase to about $8.8 billion. This estimate corresponds to the old “50% share of digital assets” proposal put forward by MSCI in October 2025 and withdrawn in January 2026. It is not a new framework adopted; MSCI did not officially announce the scale of the adjusted passive capital outflow.

Despite potential selling pressure receiving market attention, Strategy's impact on this adjustment is still relatively mild. The company emphasized that the 13 million shares mentioned above are only equivalent to about 60% of its 30-day average daily trading volume, so it believes that the adjustments will not have a significant impact on itself.

However, holding positions below the daily trading volume can indicate the level of stock trading activity, but it is not enough to determine the impact of position adjustments on stock prices. Metaplanet and Upexi are also under pressure from related funds to exit, but the actual selling pressure depends on their respective fund holdings and stock liquidity, and the size of Strategy cannot be applied. Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich has stated that this adjustment will not have a significant impact on the company's business or Bitcoin strategy; Upexi has yet to make a public statement about this exclusion. Even if the selling pressure to adjust positions gradually subsides, the impact of declining demand for stocks will continue. After withdrawing from the relevant indices, even if these funds receive additional subscription capital, they no longer need to repurchase the shares of the three companies according to their original powers. In addition to one-time sales, the three companies also lost some of their ongoing passive purchases.

The decline in passive purchases may also affect the ability of treasury companies to increase their financial holdings in subsequent financing. Such companies can continue to increase their crypto holdings, largely due to stock premiums. When the stock price is higher than the net assets per share, the assets purchased by the company have the opportunity to offset the dilution caused by the expansion of share capital and increase the corresponding holdings per share. Investors are willing to pay a premium, and they also expect the company to accumulate more assets for each share through subsequent increases in holdings. Once the premium narrows, the same increase in capital holdings will require the issuance of more new shares.

If the stock price has fallen below the net assets per share, continued issuance may also reduce the original shareholders' net assets per share, and the room for financing to increase holdings will also be limited. MSCI's current exclusion will not directly force the three companies to sell crypto assets, but with some less passive buying, it may be more difficult to maintain stock premiums.

If stock prices continue to be under pressure, the company will have to choose between slowing down the increase in holdings and accepting more unfavorable financing conditions. The past model of attracting investors through premium financing and increasing holdings will also become increasingly difficult to maintain. Whether financing can continue to buy coins also depends on how much return an increase in holdings can bring to shareholders.

If the company holds more and more crypto assets, but the assets corresponding to each shareholder share do not increase, it will be difficult for investors to pay for the next round of financing