Crude Bounces Off 100 Day as Nat Gas Breaks Its Falling Channel
Barchart·11/11/2026 09:13:29
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December crude at $88.51: A settlement above the October lows, now resistance, could open last Friday’s $90.83 settle and the 50 day at $92.48. A failure there and a settlement back below $86.04 could send December back toward the 100 day at $84.15.
OPEC today and EIA inventories Thursday: An industry estimate showed a 9 million barrel US crude build. If official data confirms a build that size, it could press December back toward $84.15. A smaller build could support a push through $88.51.
December nat gas at the 50 day, $3.33: A settlement above it could open the 100 day at $3.52. A settlement back below $3.28, the top of the old falling channel, could signal the breakout is failing and reopen $3.23.
Energy Cross Asset Note
Crude is bouncing after a two-day slide that briefly took Brent to its lowest since August. Part of that selloff was mechanical. Trend-following funds cut their long exposure in both Brent and WTI from about 45% to 9% in a single session, so a good share of the forced selling may already be done. The fundamental story hasn’t changed much. The president says further strikes on Iran aren’t necessary, but regional flareups continue and the talks have shown little progress. One analyst expects any deal to be messy and leave plenty unresolved, but notes the oil market mainly cares whether Hormuz reopens on a lasting basis. Crude keeps flowing out of the Gulf, with regional shipments near prewar levels. On the supply side elsewhere, Russia is shipping less crude after loadings halted at a key Pacific port, and a Russian diesel cargo that had signaled a US destination turned around off New York. An industry estimate showed a large US crude build last week, and distillate stocks rose from their lowest level since 2003. Official data is due Thursday. The EIA raised its 2027 forecasts for gasoline and diesel prices, citing tight global fuel supplies, and left its US output estimate unchanged. Russia-Ukraine peace talks resume today. OPEC’s monthly report is out today and the IEA’s on Friday. In nat gas, December posted its third straight gain and broke above the falling channel that has guided prices lower since spring. Forecasts turned colder again, with below-normal temperatures expected in the Southeast November 15 to 19, and production dipped slightly below last year as producers hold gas in the ground. The headwinds haven’t gone away. LNG feedgas eased on the day, Asian LNG prices fell 20% on peace hopes, LNG Canada maintenance will cut intake this month, and analysts expect a rare November storage injection with demand still muted by the mild fall. For clients, crude’s reversal off the 100 day may mark a near-term low, but the October lows overhead are the real test. In nat gas, the downtrend break is a meaningful change. The 50 day now decides whether that change has follow-through.
Crude Oil - The Setup
Crude Oil - The Technicals
CRUDE OIL
Current Price: December WTI (CLEZ26) $87.15, up $1.11 (1.29%) | Session high $87.39, low $85.81
Chart Setup
December dipped to $83.88 Tuesday, just below the 100 day at $84.15 and the May-June highs at $84.08, then recovered more than $2 to settle at $86.04. The long lower tail shows buyers defending that area. This morning December extended the bounce to $87.39 and is working back toward $88.51. That level was support at the October lows and is now resistance. The rising wedge from August is still broken, the 50 day at $92.48 is rolling over, and the 20 day at $96.21 is well overhead. The 100 day and the May-June highs together form the floor beneath this bounce.
Key Levels Above
$92.48 (50 day)
$90.83 (last Friday’s settle)
$88.51 (October lows)
$87.39 (today’s high)
Current Price: $87.15
Key Levels Below
$86.85 (Monday settle)
$86.04 (Tuesday settle)
$85.81 (today’s low)
$84.15 (100 day, with the May-June highs at $84.08)
$83.88 (Tuesday low)
Bias
The 100 day at $84.15, backed by the May-June highs at $84.08, is the level to manage against. Holding above it keeps Tuesday’s reversal intact, and a settlement above $88.51 could open $90.83 and the 50 day at $92.48. A settlement below Tuesday’s $83.88 low would mean the floor gave way and could open $80.20, with the 200 day at $78.86 below that. For sidelined traders, buyers have a clear line to manage risk against at $84.15. Sellers may get a better entry on a rally into $88.51 than at current levels.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.09.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Crude Oil futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
Natural Gas - The Setup
Natural Gas - The Technicals
NATURAL GAS
Current Price: December Natural Gas (NGEZ26) $3.31, up 1.6 cents (0.49%) | Session high $3.34, low $3.28
Chart Setup
December rose 7.8 cents Tuesday to settle at $3.30, its third straight gain and its first settlement above the falling channel that has guided prices lower since spring. This morning it pushed to $3.34, testing the 50 day at $3.33. The low held at $3.28, right on top of the old channel edge. December is up about 50 cents from its $2.84 contract low in seven sessions. The 20 day at $3.12 has turned up underneath, and the 100 day at $3.52 is the next average overhead.
Key Levels Above
$3.65 (mid-October high)
$3.52 (100 day)
$3.34 (today’s high, testing the 50 day at $3.33)
Current Price: $3.31
Key Levels Below
$3.30 (Tuesday settle)
$3.28 (today’s low, at the top of the old falling channel)
$3.23 (early-October low)
$3.22 (Monday settle)
$3.12 (20 day)
Bias
The 50 day at $3.33 is the level to manage against. A settlement above it would be December’s first close above the 50 day since mid-October and could open the 100 day at $3.52, with the mid-October high at $3.65 above that. A settlement back below $3.28 would put December back inside the old channel and could reopen $3.23 and the 20 day at $3.12. For sidelined traders, the downtrend break is a real change, but the colder weather is short-lived and storage is expected to keep building. Buyers may want to see a pullback hold $3.28 before stepping in. Sellers may want to see December fail at the 50 day first.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.09.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Natural Gas futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
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