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    Is Capital Spending Cuts Altering The Investment Case For Hess Midstream Stock?

    Simply Wall St·11/11/2026 02:43:11
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    • Hess Midstream reported third quarter 2026 revenue of US$410.1 million and net income of US$99.4 million, with basic and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of US$0.77, all slightly different from the same period a year earlier.
    • The partnership is pursuing a capital lighter model with sharply reduced capital expenditure planned for the next several years, which is directed at generating stronger free cash flow from its fee based midstream network.
    • This article reviews how Hess Midstream’s capital lighter shift and higher earnings relate to the existing investment narrative centered on free cash flow.

    Scan fee based peers positioned for stronger cash generation and compare Hess Midstream’s setup against a hand picked group of 36 high quality undervalued stocks.

    Hess Midstream Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Hess Midstream, you basically need to believe in a fee based midstream system that can turn a shrinking capital budget into steady cash generation. The latest quarter fits that script. Revenue was US$410.1 million with net income of US$99.4 million, and earnings per unit edged higher. That keeps the capital lighter, cash flow centric story intact rather than changing it.

    The near term swing factor is still execution on the planned capex step down while keeping Bakken throughput close to contracted levels. The biggest operational risk remains weaker Bakken volumes or less protection from minimum volume commitments after 2028. The recent earnings report does not materially change either point.

    The most relevant update is the third quarter 2026 earnings release itself. Hess Midstream reported US$410.1 million of revenue and US$99.4 million of net income for the period, with basic and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of US$0.77. For the first nine months of 2026, revenue was US$1,199.2 million and net income was US$283.4 million.

    Those results sit alongside the analyst consensus narrative on Simply Wall St, which already leans on a capital lighter plan, falling capex, and high minimum volume coverage as key drivers. The new numbers show the partnership still operating close to that script. The main questions for catalysts and risk are unchanged and still center on Bakken activity, throughput resilience, and execution on free cash flow targets.

    Hess Midstream Forecasts Behind the Free Cash Flow Story

    Analysts sketch a Hess Midstream path where shrinking top line expectations sit alongside solid profitability and a capital lighter footprint. Forecast revenue is projected at about US$1.2b by 2029 with consensus earnings of US$321.7 million in the same year. Those projections are paired with an assumed annual revenue decline of 9.3% over the next three years and an earnings move from US$375.0 million today to that US$321.7 million level, which is a decrease of roughly US$53 million, all framed around 2029 as the key forecast year.

    Uncover how Hess Midstream's fair value indicates a 10% potential upside to its current price before the market closes the gap.

    NYSE:HESM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NYSE:HESM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$33.43 to US$57.07, which puts a wide bracket around where Hess Midstream might trade in the eyes of different retail investors. That spread reflects the capex step down, Bakken volume risk, and MVC roll off. Expect disagreement and explore several viewpoints before deciding where you stand.

    Explore another Hess Midstream fair value estimate, including one that suggests it could be worth just $33.43.

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Don't just follow the ticker; dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

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