GE Vernova's Backlog Hit $197 Billion and the Stock Fell Anyway. Here's What a $10,000 Investment Could Be Worth by 2030.

Power, electrification, and wind turbine company GE Vernova's (NYSE: GEV) backlog recently increased to $197 billion at the end of the third quarter. Furthermore, it's now highly likely to be beyond the $200 billion figure that CEO Scott Strazik believes is a "humble milestone" on the way to long-term growth. That growth will be driven by services revenue from its rapidly growing installed base of gas turbines (power segment) and electrical equipment (electrification segment) and services sales. Here's a look at what an investment in the stock could be worth in a few years.

The investment case for GE Vernova

2030 may seem a bit far out, but the reality is GE Vernova's backlog makes its revenue relatively predictable. For reference, the midpoint of management's 2026 revenue guidance is $47 billion, or less than a quarter of the current backlog.

In the company's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, GE Vernova reported that 97% of its equipment backlog, or remaining performance obligations (RPO), of $104 billion is expected to be recognized within five years, as is 54% of its $92.6 billion in services RPO. Adding these figures together gives a figure of $150 billion by the third quarter of 2031. However, that's only part of the story, because GE Vernova will also generate revenue from new orders signed during the period in question (about a third of its equipment RPO is recognized within a year).

All told, GE Vernova's revenue is relatively predictable, and, based on the Wall Street consensus from Visible Alpha, it will generate $79.3 billion in revenue in 2030 and $13.1 billion in free cash flow (FCF), implying a price-to-FCF multiple of 14.9.

GE Vernova valuations

The question then turns to what GE Vernova should trade at in 2030 given its growth prospects thereafter. Based on the visibility in its backlog, a conservative estimate would assume it is a mature cash-cow type of company thereafter and place it at 20 times FCF in 2030. This implies it's 34.2% undervalued right now, assuming it's trading at 14.9 times 2030 FCF. As such, $10,000 invested now would be worth $13,420 in 2030.

That said, investors should note that each gas turbine installed generates a long-term stream of higher-margin services revenue, and the more equipment installed (notably its largest HA turbines), the longer the revenue stream. For example, Strazik believes the HA turbines currently under contract will generate $100 billion in future services revenue over the next 20 years.

As such, if GE Vernova continues to win orders at the current rate in 2030, it will trade closer to the 25x FCF it trades at in 2027, as investors price in future growth. This implies it's 67.8% undervalued, meaning a $10,000 investment will be worth $16,778.

GE Vernova target price

All told, something between the $16,778 and $13,420 figures seems reasonable to me, and the good news is the company's orders tend to be very early cycle (securing power for a future data center is a critical first step), so if there really is going to be a slowdown in AI investment as a result of recent political events, then GE Vernova investors will see it first in the company's order trends and be able to adjust accordingly.

Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends GE Vernova. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.