The “quantum computing” aura is difficult to overcome, and fundamental growth is falling short! Rigetti (RGTI.US) fell more than 9% after the market. Fidelity met standards but revenue fell 60% short of expectations

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the “quantum computing concept stock” Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US), which has been extremely popular in the US stock market in recent years, released its financial report for the third quarter of 2026 on the morning of November 11, Beijing time, covering the third quarter of 2026, covering July 1 to September 30. The performance data showed that this technology company, which focused on quantum computing themes, achieved a major setback in terms of revenue, loss, and order acceptance progress. At one point, it fell more than 9%.

By the close of the US stock market on November 10, the stock closed down 6.63% to $12.12, with a cumulative decline of about 23% since the fourth quarter. Rigetti's 108-qubit system reached 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, further verifying the scalability of the core architecture, but technological progress has yet to bring about steady revenue growth.

Performance data showed that the company's third-quarter revenue was only US$1.411 million, down 27.5% year on year and 72.5% month-on-month, about 60% lower than the agreed forecast of US$3.52 million, and the adjusted loss per share fell short of expectations. The annual revenue target of about $20 million still relies on India's C-DAC system to pass inspection in the fourth quarter. For the market, the next round of valuation support will depend on whether technological milestones can be quickly translated into deliverable systems, customer acceptance, and ongoing revenue.

Revenue fell below expectations by about 60%, and R&D investment continued to drive up losses

According to financial data, Rigetti Computing's third-quarter revenue was US$1,411,000, down 27.5% year on year and 72.5% month-on-month, about 59.9% lower than Wall Street analysts' unanimous expectations of about US$3.52 million in institutional statistics. The adjusted loss per share was 0.06 US dollars, the loss was 0.03 US dollars for the same period last year, and the loss of 0.05 US dollars in the previous quarter was also lower than the approximate loss of 0.05 US dollars that analysts had agreed to expect. The company's cumulative revenue for the first three quarters was US$10.949 million, up 109.8% year on year. The increase was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year.

The company's gross profit for the third quarter was US$857,000, up 112.1% year over year, and gross margin rose from 20.7% to 60.7%. The increase in gross profit brought about by the improved revenue structure is still difficult to cover the expansion of R&D. R&D expenses increased 69.7% to US$254.95 million, and operating losses increased 61.5% to US$33.186 million. GAAP net loss narrowed from US$201 million the previous year to US$3.37 million, including fair value gains of US$25.291,000 on warrants. The adjusted net loss was US$204.68 million, up 92.2% year on year and 28.1% month on month.

According to public information, Rigetti Computing specializes in superconducting quantum processors, complete machines, and quantum cloud services. It has software and hardware technology stacks from chip manufacturing to control systems. Its customers are mainly government laboratories, national scientific research institutions, and enterprise R&D departments. The capital market gave Rigetti a high valuation, which is mainly based on these long-term application spaces. At this stage, revenue still depends on a small number of research contracts and system delivery.

Some Wall Street institutional investors are even chanting that quantum computing may be entering a stage similar to the big model of early AI, and they predict that this cutting-edge technology will be the core engine of the “next generation computing revolution.”

The theoretical basis of quantum computation is quantum superposition, entanglement, and interference. The classical bit value is 0 or 1, and the qubit can be in a superposition state of the two; multiple qubits form a joint state through entanglement, and the algorithm uses quantum gates to control interference to increase the probability of measuring the target result. Although the n qubit state description involves 2ground states, this does not mean that all answers can be read at the same time, nor does it mean that all tasks will be exponentially accelerated. Its breakthrough potential is mainly reflected in specific problems such as molecular and material simulation and large integer decomposition; to complete long-term and reliable calculations, quantum error correction is also required to organize error-prone physical qubits into reliable logical qubits. In the future, it is more likely that a collaborative system of quantum computing and classical computing dominated by AI technology will be formed.

108 qubits meet the standard, and the annual revenue is still determined by customer acceptance

The company expects revenue of approximately US$20 million in 2026, on the condition that the 108-qubit system of the C-DAC of India's Advanced Computing Development Center passes inspection and confirmation of relevant revenue in the fourth quarter.

Based on actual revenue for the first three quarters, we need to achieve revenue of approximately US$9.051 million in the fourth quarter. The C-DAC order amount is US$8.4 million. The delivery and acceptance of a single contract has a significant impact on annual revenue. Fluctuations in quarterly revenue also reflect that commercialization is still driven by a small number of large projects.

An important incremental level on the technical side is that using the Cepheus-1-108Q system with 12 9-qubit cores interconnected, the median double qubit gate fidelity increased from about 99.1% to 99.5% in the second quarter. Lower gate error rates help support deeper computational circuitry and reduce the burden of error correction. The goal for the next phase is to achieve more than 300 qubits and about 99.7% fidelity by 2028, and advance to about 1,000 qubits and 99.9% fidelity within about three years. The value of the investment depends on whether error rates, manufacturing costs, and system delivery cycles can continue to be controlled after scale expansion.

Cash reserves support research and development, and market valuations are beginning to question the speed of payment

By the end of September, cash, cash equivalents and saleable investments totaled US$497.1 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 11.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.2%. The company had no debt. Operating cash outflow for the first three quarters was US$490.61 million, up 12.4% year on year, and equipment purchase expenses were US$42.598 million, up 202.1% year on year. This also means, to a large extent, that the company still has capital to advance research and development, but cash investment in refrigeration, chip manufacturing, and machine expansion is accelerating.

Recent institutional adjustments also reflect this repricing. Prior to the earnings report, Wedbush maintained an outperforming market rating on November 5 and lowered its target price from $37 to $25, due to a reduction in the 2027 and 2028 growth assumptions. B. Riley maintained the purchase on November 9, reducing the target price from $25 to $23.

According to the closing price on November 10 and a static estimate of share capital at the end of the third quarter, Rigetti's market value is still around US$4.15 billion, which is about 208 times the annual revenue guideline. This valuation is very sensitive to the speed of revenue recognition. The time difference between technological progress, order acquisition, and acceptance and fulfillment is the core explanation for recent sharp stock price fluctuations and extreme weakness.