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Results: MINEBEA MITSUMI Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Shareholders might have noticed that MINEBEA MITSUMI Inc. (TSE:6479) filed its half-yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to JP¥2,919 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥891b were what the analysts expected, MINEBEA MITSUMI surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥73.98 per share, an impressive 31% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the 15 analysts covering MINEBEA MITSUMI provided consensus estimates of JP¥1.73t revenue in 2027, which would reflect a perceptible 2.4% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 23% to JP¥232 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.73t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥226 in 2027. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on MINEBEA MITSUMI's earnings potential following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for MINEBEA MITSUMI
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥4,605, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on MINEBEA MITSUMI, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,750 and the most bearish at JP¥2,850 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.7% annualised decline to the end of 2027. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that MINEBEA MITSUMI's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around MINEBEA MITSUMI's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that MINEBEA MITSUMI's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for MINEBEA MITSUMI going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for MINEBEA MITSUMI that we have uncovered.
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