Australian Stock Market Today: ASX Futures Edge Up As Confidence Slides And CPI Looms

The Morning Bull - Australian Market Morning Update Wednesday, 11 Nov 2026

Australian shares are set for a cautious, slightly softer open, with sentiment dominated by a clear drop in local confidence. Futures are modestly positive, yet the tone feels fragile rather than upbeat.

The NAB Business Confidence Index slipped to -15 in October, while the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index is at 78.2 in November, a 4‑year low. That pairing signals quieter hiring, softer capex, and more defensive household spending plans.

When both businesses and households pull back, borrowing costs start to bite harder. Companies may delay investment or discount more aggressively to support revenue, while interest sensitive areas like housing finance and discretionary spending often face tighter conditions.

The open now hinges on whether upcoming home loans data and the next RBA signals confirm this slowdown story or hint at some relief. Investors have to decide if weaker sentiment justifies paying up for domestically focused equities at current levels.

Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell

Life360 (360)

Life360 posted Q3 2026 revenue of US$174.1 million, up from US$124.5 million a year earlier, with net income at US$22.5 million and adjusted EBITDA at US$34.6 million. Subscription and advertising lines both showed strong momentum. Attention now turns to whether updated full year guidance for US$665 million to US$681 million in sales and 20% EBITDA margins holds.

Evolution Mining (EVN)

Evolution Mining has closed its A$213 million acquisition of Carnaby Resources via a court approved scheme. Carnaby investors receive 0.0682 new Evolution shares per Carnaby share, with Carnaby set to be delisted after trading on 11 November. The Greater Duchess copper gold project joins Evolution’s North West Queensland portfolio and is earmarked for an extra 10,000 tonnes of copper output at Ernest Henry.

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

Ingenia Communities Group sits in the middle of a live takeover tussle. AVID Property Group has exercised its matching right with a further revised, non binding cash proposal at $5.55 per stapled security, potentially up to $5.60 including a permitted distribution, matching Warburg Pincus terms. The board sees AVID’s offer as at least comparable, yet no binding deal exists and due diligence plus exclusivity now run through 14 December.

Top Movers

• Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND) jumped 15.30% after traders responded to renewed interest in contractors leveraged to resources projects.
• IperionX (ASX:IPX) surged 14.88% as investors focused on its exposure to advanced materials and related project developments.
• Temple & Webster Group (ASX:TPW) climbed 8.08% with buyers rotating back into online retail exposure ahead of peak spending periods.

Top Losers

• Superloop (ASX:SLC) declined 10.18%.
• Service Stream (ASX:SSM) fell 5.91% after investors reacted to the A$404m equity raising and follow-on offering.
• Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) slipped 2.94% after the company reported a change in its company secretary role.

On The Radar

Australian housing data, a fresh batch of local earnings and a key US inflation print sit at the centre of what will shape risk appetite for Australian shares in the next few sessions.

• Australia Home Loans QoQ, Wed 11 Nov. Q3 home loans previously fell 1.9%, so any weaker result would underline pressure on household borrowing and could reinforce the downbeat consumer and business sentiment already weighing on domestic banks and retailers.
• Australia Investment Lending for Homes, Wed 11 Nov. Investor lending previously declined 10.2% and a result softer than the forecast 14.0% drop would suggest property investors are pulling back more cautiously than feared, which matters for listed REITs and housing linked construction stocks.
• US CPI and Core Inflation (MoM and YoY), Tue 10 Nov. Consensus points to 0.2% core and 0.3% headline monthly moves with 3.9% annual inflation, and a lower outcome would ease US rate expectations and typically support the A$ and rate sensitive Australian equities.
• Aristocrat Leisure, Thu 12 Nov. Fiscal 2026 results will put the spotlight on revenue and margins in its gaming operations, which help investors judge how resilient discretionary entertainment spending is for one of the larger consumer facing Australian groups.
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Wed 11 Nov. Q1 2027 figures arrive as local confidence weakens and will focus attention on loan growth and credit quality, with any shift in bad debts or volumes feeding directly into how investors price the major bank sector.

Sector & Industry Watch

Tech Recovery rally still on fragile footing

Tech has logged the strongest 7 day sector move in the Australian market, with the group up a little over 8% and rebounding from a weak year to date patch. Fresh contract wins and deals at Codan, DUG Technology, Etherstack, X2M Connect, Spacetalk, Nanoveu and others have put cash flow and recurring software style income back in focus.

If you hold local Technology exposure, the key swing factor is tonight’s US inflation data because any shift in global rate expectations tends to hit high P/E sectors first and can quickly change how comfortable investors feel holding this rebound.

Materials and Metals and Mining Miners push higher on China and capital

Materials and Metals and Mining have both posted clear 7 day gains of around 6%, while 30 day returns are still softer, so the sector is rebuilding after a recent pause. Strong China import growth plus a long list of raisings, offtake agreements and drilling updates from BHP Group, Astron, Lindian Resources, Pacific Lime and Cement and a wide group of explorers keep attention on copper, iron ore, gold and rare earths.

If you own a broad mining ETF or several producers, the single data point to watch is how China’s trade and credit numbers evolve over the next few months because any cooling in that demand can quickly affect revenue expectations for Australian exporters.

Energy and Oil and Gas Short term slide after solid 12 months

Energy and Oil and Gas have both declined about 6% over the past week even though year to date and 12 month returns remain clearly positive, which points more to a pullback than a trend reversal. Recent funding moves at MC Mining, Metgasco, Botala Energy and Beetaloo Energy, plus talk of banks stepping back from some new gas pipelines, highlight how many projects still lean on lenders and shareholders while prices move around.

If your portfolio leans on Energy for income or inflation protection, the next US crude inventory data and tonight’s API figures are the real catalyst because a sharp oil move around those releases can quickly change expectations for local producer cash flows and fuel costs for airlines and transport heavy businesses.

Real Estate REIT rebound faces lending and confidence test

Real Estate has risen roughly 3% over the last 7 days and more than 4% over 30 days while 1 year and year to date returns remain weaker, so the move still looks like a recovery from low levels. Updates from Aspen Group and LDR Capital Property Fund point to solid occupancy and lower gearing at the same time that NAB Business Confidence is well into negative territory and consumer sentiment is at a 4 year low.

If you rely on REIT distributions, tomorrow’s Australian home loans and investment lending figures are the key check because a softer flow of new borrowing can signal pressure on residential demand, valuations and eventually payout decisions across listed property trusts.

Consumer Discretionary Bounce continues while households stay cautious

Consumer Discretionary has delivered positive 7 day and 30 day returns even though 12 month and year to date performance is still in decline, which suggests a rally from depressed levels rather than a settled uptrend. Trading updates from Flight Centre Travel Group, Carma and JB Hi Fi’s The Good Guys unit are arriving just as the Westpac consumer sentiment survey hits 78.2, with many households still focused on higher borrowing and living costs.

If you hold retailers, travel or auto related stocks, the one thing to watch next is how boards talk about Christmas and January trading in coming weeks because any change in tone on discounting, inventory and store expansion plans will tell you how that weak confidence is feeding into spending on the ground.

Don't Just Read The News, Use It

With NAB Business Confidence at -15 and consumer sentiment sitting at a 4 year low, start with this list of 6 resilient stocks with low risk scores to see which businesses screen as more resilient on risk.

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