Post-WASDE Trade Setup: Corn and Soybeans Turn Higher While Wheat Faces Resistance

Walsh Pure Grain Technicals / Daily News/Pure Hedge Division

Tim Healy                                                              11/10/2026

 

Post-WASDE Trade Setup: Corn and Soybeans Turn Higher While Wheat Faces Resistance

Ranking the Trends

1. Soybeans: strongest reversal

Jan. soybeans closed at $12.28, above both the 7-day and 14-day EMAs, but still below the 21-day EMA.

• Close versus 7-day: +17.42 cents
• Close versus 14-day: +3.08 cents
• Close versus 21-day: -10.66 cents
• November 10 gain: 39’6 cents
• November 10 range: $11.85 to $12.30

The move above the 14-day EMA is positive, but the 21-day EMA near $12.38’6 is the major trend test.

2. Corn: early recovery signal

Dec. corn closed at $4.49, above the 7-day EMA but below the 14- and 21-day EMAs.

• Close versus 7-day: +3.97 cents
• Close versus 14-day: -1.74 cents
• Close versus 21-day: -9.07 cents
• November 10 range: $4.38’6 to $4.55’2

The USDA-driven rebound improved momentum, but corn needs to clear $4.50’6, followed by $4.58, to demonstrate a broader reversal.

3. Wheat: weakest technical structure

Dec. wheat closed at $5.92’6, below all three EMAs.

• Close versus 7-day: -3.83 cents
• Close versus 14-day: -15.24 cents
• Close versus 21-day: -27.00 cents
• EMA order: 7-day below 14-day below 21-day

That remains a clearly bearish alignment. The November 10 bounce improved the immediate picture, but it did not reverse the downtrend.

Trade ideas

Corn: buy confirmation above the 14-day EMA

The bullish domestic USDA numbers support corn, but the chart has not fully confirmed a reversal. The best approach is to require follow-through rather than chase the initial report spike.

Bullish setup

• Entry: Buy a close above 451’0
• Stronger confirmation: Trade above 455’2, the November 10 high
• Initial stop: 442’0
• Target 1: 458’0, approximately the 21-day EMA
• Target 2: 463’0 to 466’0
• Target 3: 474’0, if short covering accelerates

Example using a 451’0 entry and 442’0 stop:

• Risk: 9 cents
• Corn contract value: $50 per cent
• Approximate risk: $450 per contract, excluding fees and commissions
• First target at 458’0: $350 potential gain
• Second target at 466’0: $750 potential gain

The first target alone does not produce favorable risk/reward, so this setup works better if part of the position is held for 463-0 or higher.

Bearish failure setup

• Trigger: Corn fails below 451 and closes back under 442-0
• Entry zone: 441’6 to 439’0
• Stop: 449’4
• Target 1: 432’0
• Target 2: 425’0

I believe corn is moderately bullish, but buy only on confirmation. Corn has the most supportive report fundamentals, while the moving averages show that overhead resistance is still present.

Soybeans: buy a successful retest or a breakout

Soybeans produced the strongest one-day reversal and regained the 14-day EMA. However, the market closed near the upper part of a wide report-day range, making an immediate purchase vulnerable to profit-taking.

Bullish pullback setup

• Entry: 1218’0 to 1225’0
• This area combines the breakout zone and the 14-day EMA near 1225-0
• Stop: 1202’0
• Target 1: 1238’6, the 21-day EMA
• Target 2: 1252’0
• Target 3: 1264’0 to 1268’0

Example using 1222‘0 entry and 1202’0 stop:

• Risk: 20 cents
• Soybean contract value: $50 per cent
• Approximate risk: $1,000 per contract
• Target at 1252’0: 30 cents, or approximately $1,500
• Target at 1264’0: 42 cents, or approximately $2,100

Bullish breakout setup

• Trigger: Trade above the November 10 high of 1230-0
• Better confirmation: Close above the 21-day EMA at approximately 1238-6
• Stop: 1217-0
• Target 1: 1252-0
• Target 2: 1264’0 to 1268-0

A close above 1238-6 would put soybeans above all three EMAs and materially improve the intermediate trend.

Bearish failure setup

• Trigger: Close back below 1202’0
• Stop: 1225’0
• Target 1: 1188’0
• Target 2: 1184’0 to 1185’0

Bullish on a controlled pullback into 1218-1225 or on a confirmed close above 1238’6. Avoid chasing directly after the nearly 40-cent report-day rally.

Wheat: I do favor selling resistance

Wheat rallied on November 10, but the close remained below the 7, 14, and 21-day EMAs. Wheat also faces the bearish increase in world ending stocks from the USDA report.

Preferred bearish setup

• Sell zone: 596’4 to 603’4
• This includes the 7-day EMA and recent closing resistance
• Stop: 610’4
• Target 1: 585’0
• Target 2: 575’0
• Target 3: 560’0, if the larger downtrend resumes

Example using a 600’0 entry and 610’4 stop:

• Risk: 10’4 cents
• Wheat contract value: $50 per cent
• Approximate risk: $525 per contract
• Target at 575'0: 25 cents, or approximately $1,250
• Reward-to-risk: approximately 2.4:1

Bullish reversal alternative

A bullish position becomes more attractive only if wheat begins closing above its declining EMAs.

• Initial trigger: Close above 608’0
• Stronger confirmation: Close above 620’0
• Stop: 596’0
• Target 1: 625’0
• Target 2: 643’0

Preferred wheat position

Sell rallies while below 608-0. Wheat has the weakest EMA structure and the least supportive USDA fundamental backdrop.

Best risk-adjusted ranking

1. Sell wheat into 596-603 resistance
2. Buy soybeans on a 1218-1225 retest
3. Buy corn above 451, preferably with confirmation above 455’2

Tim Healy

Broker

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 312 957 4731

thealy@walshtrading.com

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