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Monday, Nov. 9, 2026
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AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) reported third-quarter results and updated its strategic roadmap for the deployment of a space-based cellular broadband network. Management confirmed that the company is on track for nationwide intermittent service activation in the United States and other key markets by year-end 2026. The company secured a $1 billion non-dilutive subsidy for its J-LEO program in Japan and announced Blacklift, a proprietary 20-ton reusable rocket intended to provide unconstrained access to orbit starting in late 2028. The company maintained its full year 2026 revenue guidance and identified a $1.2 billion pipeline for additional non-dilutive quasi-governmental financing in 2027 to support its constellation build-out and technical initiatives.
Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to AST SpaceMobile Third Quarter 2026 Business Update. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Max Colbert, Investor Relations Manager of AST SpaceMobile. Thank you. You may begin.
Maxwell Colbert: Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I'm also joined by Chairman and CEO, Abel Avellan, President, Scott Wisniewski and CFO and Chief Legal Officer, Andy Johnson. Let me refer you to Slide 2 of the presentation, which contains our safe harbor disclaimer. During today's call, we may make certain forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, and as a result, are subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual events to differ materially from the forward-looking statements on this call.
For more information about these risks and uncertainties, please refer to the Risk Factors section of AST SpaceMobile's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2025 with the Securities and Exchange Commission and other documents filed by AST SpaceMobile with the SEC from time to time. Also, after our initial remarks, we'll be starting our Q&A section with questions submitted in advance by our shareholders. For those of you who may be new to our company and mission, there are nearly 6 billion mobile phones today around the world, but many of us still experience gaps in coverage as we live, work and travel.
Additionally, there are billions of people without cellular broadband and remain unconnected to the global economy. The markets we are pursuing at AST SpaceMobile are massive, and the problem we are solving is important and touches nearly all of us. In this backdrop, AST SpaceMobile is building the first and only global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with every day unmodified mobile phones, supported by our extensive IP and patent portfolio. It is now my pleasure to pass this over to Chairman and CEO, Abel Avellan, who will go through our activity since our last public update.
Abel Avellan: Thanks, Max. As always, our mission is simple to say and hard to do, to build the first and only space-based cellular broadband network accessible directly by everyday smartphones, designed for both commercial and government applications. This quarter, we made real progress on every front that matters. Service, launch capability, government and capital. Let me walk through it. If you remember, only one message from today make it this one, 4 milestones defined this quarter. First, service. We're on track for nationwide intermittent service activation in United States and other key markets before year-end 2026. This is the moment we have been building towards.
Second, launch, we announced Blacklift, our own 20-ton reusable rocket powered by the Miranda and Vira engines, with launches starting in late 2028. Third, government. We secured dual use commercial and government DPAS rating, and we now have launches planned in '27 and '28 with SpaceX, Blue Origin and others, supporting a plan 100 satellites in orbit. Fourth, capital. We secured $1 billion in nondilutive subsidies from Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications for mid-band satellite manufacturing. And the number behind those milestones, $42.3 million in third quarter revenue, $3.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, more than 100 Bluebirds under launch agreements and a production rate target of 6 per month in December.
Let me put this quarter in context. We advanced several important initiatives to support the global expansion of our network. We expect to work with all major mobile network operators in the United States and Europe. That give us the potential commercial ecosystem in excess of our current agreement with over 60 mobile network operators represented over 3 billion subscribers globally. On the manufacturing front, we are transitioning to a fully scaled ASIC integration, with BlueBird 34, while advancing production through BlueBird 51. We made that choice deliberately because it substantially increased the capability of every satellite we build, and we expect to reach a production rate of 6 ASIC satellites per month in December of this year.
Looking ahead, our priorities for '26 and '27 are clear: advanced service readiness across our initial markets, complete the transition to ASIC enabled production, scale constellation deployment and be the direct to device partner of choice for mobile network operators, technology leaders and the U.S. government. Let's start with service. We expect initially intermittent nationwide coverage in key markets by year-end 2026. We're doing this by leveraging the strength of our partners, their network, infrastructure, their spectrum, their customer relationship, combined with our technology leadership. The first step of our coverage rollout is with the strategic partners in 5 markets, United States, Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia and United Kingdom.
I am also proud to share that with our partner, AT&T, we validated the first-ever satellite beam handover between ground-based and space-based cellular broadband networks. This about that means for our customer moving seamless from a cell tower to a satellite on the phone already in your pocket. No other company has this capability. On spectrum, we're combining share MNO spectrum with our control MSS spectrum on a market-by-market basis. We're targeting approximately 100 megahertz of spectrum access in the United States and more than 60 megahertz globally. Now to manufacturing. We made a strategic decision to pull forward our next-generation ASIC from BlueBird 50 to BlueBird 34.
The ASIC delivered 10x improvement in processing bandwidth compared with the Block 1 BlueBirds in orbit today. Today, we're in production through BlueBird 51 in Texas with 2 factories running full shift to reach run rate production. Every satellite we launched from BlueBird 34 onwards will be dramatically more capable, 10x, and we expect to hit 6 satellites per month in December. BlueBird are now on the move. Let me walk through the time line. In orbit today, BlueBird 11, 12 and 13 have been flown successfully and are in operation in space. September 2026 BlueBird 14, 15 and 16 shipped to the Cape and are awaiting their SpaceX launch day confirmation.
November 2026, BlueBirds 17, 18, 19 are expected to ship for a Blue Origin launch expected in early Q1. BlueBird 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 and 25 shipping during December and January for expected DPAS rated dual use launches during Q1 2027. Mid-2027, we're targeting 45 BlueBirds in orbit. '27 through '28, we're expecting an aggregated deployment of more than 100 BlueBirds under our launch agreements. Late 2028, Blacklift, our own rocket begin launches. Our launch agreement now cover over 100 BlueBirds satellites expected to be deployed between '27 and '28. Let me spend a moment on Blacklift because it's a defining step for the company. Blacklift is our purpose build reusable rocket to deploy BlueBird into low Earth orbit.
It is a 20-ton vehicle able to carry up to five BlueBirds per launch, with initial launches planned for late 2028. It uses the Miranda and Vira engines, engines architecture with over a decade of development and proven flight heritage. Why this matter? It gives us a greater control over launch availability and deployment schedules. It offers attractive ownership economics over the long term. It complement, it does not replace our launch agreement with SpaceX, Blue Origin and others for '27 and '28, and it gives us access to further launches for U.S. government missions. Alongside our DPAS rated programs. In short, regular unconstrained access to orbit with attractive owner's economics. Our ambitions goes beyond direct to device.
We are positioning AST SpaceMobile as the partner of choice for global mobile network operators, technology leaders and the United States government. In government, we were awarded an approximate $100 million U.S. Space Force contract to advanced space-based sensing capabilities. We now have 16 U.S. governments award to date. Internationally, we are growing our partnership strategy by combining S-band spectrum with IMT spectrum allocations in large international markets like Brazil. In technology, we operate the largest phased array in low Earth orbit, combined with our ASIC micron, they open a dramatically expanded addressable market across capability beyond direct to device, including in orbit AI inferences, space-based sensing and other applications around physical AI.
And this is showing up in our results. We remain on target for our full year 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million with an upside from recent contract signatures. And our balance sheet is strong. $3.2 billion in cash, cash equivalent and restricted cash, reinforced by USD 1 billion in J-LEO non-diluted subsidies with our partner, Rakuten. And a $1.2 billion nondiluted additional quasi-governmental no dilutive financing that is pipeline for 2027. With that, I will turn the call over to Scott, who will take you through our business update in more detail.
Scott Wisniewski: Thank you, Abel. We've made great strides advancing service readiness, manufacturing, growing our commercial and U.S. government ecosystem and ensuring regular unconstrained access to orbit with Blacklift. I'll highlight our progress and put into context the enormous opportunity to deliver space based cellular broadband for our partners amidst a large and growing total addressable market. Demand for direct-to-device connectivity has grown significantly during 2026. Space-based cellular broadband connectivity and critical noncommunication services like sensing and radar are considered must-have capabilities between wireless and defense ecosystems and our BlueBird satellite platforms operate as a leading satellite technology platform capable of performing both.
We believe that unconstrained access to orbit will be both a key differentiator among technology companies operating in space and the way to continue to address the very large expanded TAM over time. What ultimately gave us conviction that building our own 20-ton rocket was feasible and the time line was set forth was by starting from a place of strength, acquiring trusted and tested engine technology. The backbone of every rocket is its engines. The Miranda engine combines repeated successful testing, patent-protected propulsion technology and maximum performance, making it the right engine to build a purpose-built rocket around.
The Miranda engine has conducted over 175 successful hot fire tests for more than 4,200 seconds, the equivalent of about 20 full first stage flights and completed a flight-like test at 110% performance of the 230,000 pounds of thrust engine. This was pushing the Miranda engine beyond nominal parameters where performance earns its marks. We are not buying just any rocket engine technology nor are we starting from scratch. The Miranda engine leverages an architecture with over a decade of development and proven flight heritage, immediately kick starting Blacklift development with a massive leap forward.
We're doing this with Firefly, one of the few companies in the United States with a proven liquid engine of this scale, making their engine intellectual property and rocket technology, both proven and scarce. They have also demonstrated repeated launch success to orbit with their Alpha rocket whose engine IP are what the larger Miranda engines were built on. They've also completed several missions for the U.S. government and defense customers. They're also the first and only private company to ever successfully land and operate spacecraft on the moon, a monumental achievement for American dominance in space.
This transaction was structured carefully with a mix of proceeds in cash and stock and further payments over time alongside the significant value we expect to receive. Additionally, we are assessing our forward CapEx and expect to spend several hundred million dollars of incremental CapEx in 2027 associated with Blacklift. And any upside associated with pulling forward internal project milestones as appropriate. Supplemental to our Blacklift news, we have new agreements with our external launch providers. External launch remains critical to our near and medium-term network deployment objectives. These agreements now cover in total over 100 BlueBird satellites expected to be deployed cumulatively between 2027 and 2028 by launch providers with active manifest.
We also have access to further launches for U.S. government missions alongside our DPAS rated program, the defense priorities and allocation system which helps assure that strategic resources for national security are timely available to meet current national defense and emergency preparedness program requirements. Take this as a signal that our on-orbit technology is strategic, innovative and flexible, especially to meet the needs of the United States government. Our focus at AST SpaceMobile has always been on building a network capable of delivering cellular broadband connectivity everywhere, working in partnership with mobile network operators around the world. Today, we have more than 60 MNO partners collectively covering our 3 billion subscribers.
But what we have developed is much more than a satellite connectivity solution. Our differentiated technology, extensive intellectual property, vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities, global MNO ecosystem, comprehensive spectrum strategy and sophisticated in-orbit platform position us to pursue opportunities across multiple industries. As our technology has matured, so has the breadth of the markets we can address. Now, anchored by the direct device market, we have identified other leading industries where we're already developing business like IoT services, radar and space-based sensing, secured communications, federal emergency services, sovereign-funded networks, AI inference and other applications around physical AI. Now let me highlight several of the most significant markets where we've made recent important traction.
Our recently announced award for advanced sensing capabilities through the U.S. Space Force will produce approximately $100 million in revenue. This is a small step towards a much larger program of record for AMTI or Airborne Moving Target Indication, a capability which is highly strategic for the United States and we believe to be a top priority for the Space Force. On the sovereign front, we are seeing a trend of large countries and regional bodies looking to replicate owned resilient communications in orbit. Driven by a desire for greater operational control over communications in their territory.
This is a market we expect to deliver meaningfully in and no better example than with our J-LEO initiatives in Japan with approximately $1 billion in funding to support a mid-band constellation and in-country traffic. Providing critical resilient communications to Japan using architecture that lands traffic in country uniquely positions us to serve this need and to further connectivity layers to meet this demand. This follows our continued work with FirstNet, our partner through AT&T, supporting emergency and first responder networks in the United States and recent announcements with multiple governments through partners like Vodafone. A few notes on the mechanics of the J-LEO award for modeling purposes.
We expect the funding to be made ahead of investment in spacecraft and launch with the majority of proceeds received during 2027. In consideration for the subsidy, the joint venture in which we will hold 49% of the equity, will receive the revenue for 3 targeted exclusive markets in Asia. The remaining capacity of these subsidized satellites outside of Japan will operate as part of our global mid-band network and be available to our global partners in the normal course with a low single-digit net revenue share of the joint venture. Lastly, progress on gateway deliveries, commercial service and executing milestones under our U.S. government contracts reinforce our conviction in achieving our full year 2026 revenue goals.
As a result, we are reiterating our guidance of $150 million to $200 million on the year, and even with the expected Q4 weighted revenue build, we see potential upside to our guidance, depending on the timing of certain milestones and the J-LEO program. Altogether, the pieces of our global space-based cellular broadband network are coming together alongside nondilutive financing as we prepare for commercial service with our MNO partners and drive business in a large and growing total addressable market. I'm now happy to pass the call over to Andy to walk through our financial update.
Andrew Johnson: Thanks, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. During the third quarter of 2026, we maintained focus on our strategic objectives by further fortifying our capital position and executing on a multitude of commercial, operational and financial objectives. Revenue in Q3 came in consistent with our internal plans. As I previously noted, we expect revenues to build sequentially each quarter during 2026 with contributions from both commercial revenue, including gateway sales revenue and U.S. government milestones met. I am pleased to confirm that we remain on track to meet our full year 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million.
With respect to manufacturing in September of this year, we shipped BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 to Cape Canaveral and are currently awaiting their SpaceX launch date confirmation. This month, in November of 2026, BlueBirds 17, 18 and 19 are expected to ship for a Blue Origin launch that we anticipate in early Q1 of 2027. Additionally, BlueBirds 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 and 25 in our shipping during December and January for expected DPAS-rated dual-use launches during Q1 of 2027. Our manufacturing facilities in Midland are completely transformed and buzzing with activity to achieve a manufacturing cadence now of 6 ASIC satellites per month before the end of this year.
That manufacturing progress positions us well to support our current network deployment plan, targeting approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by the middle of 2027. Beyond '27 through 2028, we anticipate reaching deployment of more than 100 BlueBirds under our current launch agreements. And in late 2028, we expect to bring Blacklift our own rocket to launch on a go-forward basis.
The strength of our balance sheet further bolstered by July's convertible debt offering positions us not only to complete the full build-out and launch of a constellation of over 100 BlueBird satellites to provide worldwide space mobile service and deploy our controlled spectrum bands on a global basis, but also to pursue critical growth initiatives like securing additional access to orbit through our recently announced Blacklift 20-ton reusable rocket, which further vertically integrates AST SpaceMobile all the way to the launch pad.
Our intentional focus on investing in the growth of our operations led to higher adjusted operating expenses in Q3 2026 as compared to Q2, consistent with our expectations as previously communicated during our second quarter 2026 earnings call in August. Now moving to the operating and capital metrics slide, let's review the key metrics for the third quarter in a bit more detail. On the first chart, for the third quarter of 2026, we incurred non-GAAP adjusted operating expenses of $133.6 million versus $119.1 million in the second quarter non-GAAP adjusted operating expenses exclude noncash operating costs.
The quarter-over-quarter increase of $14.5 million resulted primarily from a $1 million increase in adjusted cost of revenues due to higher revenue in the quarter together with an $11 million increase in adjusted engineering service costs, a $1.2 million increase in adjusted general and administrative costs and a $1.3 million increase in R&D costs. Our Q3 2026 adjusted operating expenses, excluding adjusted cost of revenues were $109.4 million compared to $95.9 million in Q2 of 2026. This amount was within the $105 million to $115 million guidance for Q3 adjusted operating expenses that I previously provided.
The primary drivers of the increase versus the prior quarter were growth in our workforce, including contractors and consultants, our expanded production facilities, offset by a favorable onetime R&D tax credit in the amount of $4.5 million. Turning towards the second chart on this slide. Our capital expenditures for the third quarter of 2026 were approximately $310 million versus approximately $610 million for the second quarter, this figure was made up primarily of payments made in connection with multiple launch contracts, capitalized direct materials and labor for our BlueBird satellites with the balance relating to facility and production equipment expenditures.
This amount for the quarter was below the guidance of $350 million to $425 million that I provided during our last earnings call, primarily due to the timing-related shifts in launch payments. For the fourth quarter of 2026, we estimate that our adjusted operating expenses, excluding adjusted cost of revenues will increase to the range of approximately $130 million to $140 million as we continue to absorb the full quarter of cost of our expanded workforce continued growing talent across our organization to scale our efforts on commercial readiness, address our expanding TAM, pursue the monetization of our L and S-band spectrum usage rights and begin to ramp efforts related to our Blacklift rocket capability.
Following lighter than originally anticipated CapEx spend in Q3, we expect our capital expenditures in Q4 of 2026 to be in the range of approximately $400 million to $500 million, primarily driven by the timing of launch payments, which, as I've previously explained and evidenced by historical spend, varies from quarter-to-quarter. Importantly, our continued spend on growth-related CapEx reflects our increasing satellite production and our active orbital launch plans.
We continue to estimate that our average capital costs, including direct materials and launch costs for our constellation of over 90 BlueBird satellites will fall in the range of approximately $21 million to $23 million per satellite excluding certain initial satellites and corresponding launch that are used to validate performance and operations and may increase as we work to continually expedite our launch schedules. Our cost per satellite estimates are subject to fluctuations based on dynamic geopolitical factors that could impact our cost. As a reminder, changes in our adjusted operating expenses and capital expenditures, as I've just described, could be delayed or may not be realized due to a variety of factors. Turning to revenue.
In the third quarter, we recognized revenue of $42.3 million, primarily driven by commercial gateway deliveries and various U.S. government service milestone achievements. Our revenue increased sequentially and year-over-year in the third quarter as we expected due to the timing of gateway deployment to our commercial customers and the timing of completion of certain government contract milestones. With respect to commercial revenue generation, we believe we can enable continuous space mobile service across key markets such as the United States, Europe, Japan and other strategic markets with the launch and operation of approximately 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites and additional strategic worldwide markets with the launch and operation of approximately 90 BlueBird satellites.
Further, as we continue to launch and deploy our constellation, we will continue to support U.S. government applications currently ongoing and accelerating as our constellation grows. As we reiterated previously, we expect to generate full year 2026 revenue in the range of $150 million to $200 million. We managed the top line with a focus on full year performance given the quarterly variability inherent to our business, including the timing of contract signings, equipment sales and milestone achievements.
We continue to work on several Q4 revenue opportunities that will ultimately determine where we fall within our guidance range, but have high confidence that revenue acceleration this quarter will result in achievement of our full year 2026 revenue guidance with potential upside. We expect revenue to continue to be driven by gateway deliveries, achievement of contracted milestones for the U.S. government, MNO consulting services and software licensing.
The achievement of our revenue plan remains subject to several contingencies, including the successful launch and deployment of our BlueBird satellites related to U.S. government applications, and those contractual milestone achievements, critical gateway equipment sales to our MNO partners in support of their anticipated commercialization efforts of our SpaceMobile service and software revenues in connection with the activation of our commercial service provided by our existing and planned, deployed and operational satellites. Now turning to the balance sheet. As I previously reviewed with you on our Q2 earnings call in August, in July this year, we executed a convertible debt transaction for $1.15 billion aggregate principal amount of 1.625% convertible senior notes due in 2034.
As part of the transaction, we purchased the capped call hedge to increase the effective conversion price to $149.20 per share, a price well above our all-time high trading price. This financing was pivotal, allowing us to pursue additional access to orbit through the creation of our Blacklift rocket, which we expect to provide critical vertical integration of our business to the launch vehicle over the next couple of years. Finally, on the final chart on this slide, inclusive of that $1.15 billion in gross proceeds from the convertible notes offering, our cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash as of September 30, 2026, was over $3.2 billion.
And with that, I'd like to thank you for your continued support as we continue executing on our commercial, operational and financial objectives. We are in the midst of an exciting Q4 in AST SpaceMobile and look forward to sharing more on our progress with you, starting with this Thursday's Blacklift unveiling event in New York City. We hope you'll join us for that milestone event. And with that, this completes the presentation component of our business update call, and I'll pass it back to Max.
Maxwell Colbert: Thank you, Andy. Before we go to the queue of analyst questions, we'd like to address a few of the questions submitted by our investors. Operator, could you please start us off with the first question?
Operator: Kevin from Vancouver asked, when facing a launch supply constraint, do you plan on stockpiling satellites to be "ready to ship" or will you slow down production to align with available launch capacity?
Abel Avellan: Thank you, Kevin. No, we do not stop production. As a matter of fact, that's why we are on Satellite 51. 14, 15 and 16 were shipped to the Cape and they're awaiting SpaceX launch date confirmation. 17 18, 19 will be shipped during November. 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 and 25 shipments will happen in December and January. And our plan is to continue with 6 a month. We are already on satellite 51 in production and all the way to satellite 28 in very final stage.
Maxwell Colbert: Scott from North Carolina asks, could you expand on your relationship with non-MNO commercial customers, such as Google and Meta?
Abel Avellan: Thank you, Scott. Well, Google is an investor, and we have been working with them for a long time. Meta owns WhatsApp, which have over 3.3 billion monthly active subscribers. And of course, we're very active with all the technology company working on AI and AI everywhere to enable physical AI. And this is a very strategic relationship for us. And we obviously have a very unique capability that enable the ability to infer on the satellites itself.
And when you combine that with a very large phased array with a constant latency into the satellite, that improved the performance of AI inferences exponentially, above and apart that you basically enable AI everywhere, into everything combined with the ability to connect very small form factor devices, phones or things that are smaller than phones, machines, cars, drones and everything that requires AI to be able to function. So yes, we're working with Google. We're working with Meta. We're working with many others, AI enablers in combining our very unique capability, a very large phased array with a lot of power with a constant latency -- minimum latency to enable AI inferences.
Operator: [ Ardesh ] here from Georgia asks. Hello, I was very curious to see a filing for E-band phased array on our satellites. What's the use case for these?
Abel Avellan: Ardesh, I mean, good catch on following what we're doing regulatory speaking. We do have the ability to launch, operate the largest phased arrays ever put into orbit. And of course, our team, it is extremely advanced on our RF capabilities, low band, mid-band and other coming bands, including the E-band. And we plan to introduce this into our satellite road map. Part of what is our belief that throughput and speed and a lower latency. It is the key aspects of any infrastructure for direct to device, we're adding other bands into architecture. And yes, we have done filings for E-Band phased array capabilities to be combined with our cellular direct-to-device small footprint terminals capability.
Operator: Johan from New York asked, how much of the new facility will support cellular broadband satellites versus defense sensing and other government-related satellite systems?
Abel Avellan: Thank you, Johan, for the question. Well, you can see the demand for our satellites is exponentially growing, as you saw in our announcement this morning from J-LEO in Japan. We have many other regions requesting a similar setup. And the way that we do this is these constellations can be reused for all the regions. And they are all designed to be able to support all the applications that the satellites support. Obviously, everything anchor around D2D and the ability to connect to very small terminals like phones, but smaller -- even smaller terminals as well.
So these facilities, we don't divide the facilities by application, we divide the facilities basically into how many satellite we can build a month, which we see demand of that continue to grow significantly, of what we see in Japan, in Europe, in North America, in Canada, in Brazil and many other regions. And for that, every satellite that we built, it will be designed to support all the applications in multiple bands. Our low-band frequencies where we anchor a lot around our cellular operators partnerships. Mid-band, including our own spectrum and its own spectrum holdings.
L-Band in the United States, Mexico, Canada, S-Band in selected large markets like we have seen in Brazil and other future spectrum that we all combined in order to have access to the most spectrum possible, combined with a very large phased arrays to enable direct to device connectivity, sensing, which include radar as well. And AI, with a particular focus on AI everywhere, physical AI.
Maxwell Colbert: And with that, I'd like to thank our shareholders for submitting those questions. Operator, let's open up the call to analyst questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Colin Canfield with Cantor Fitzgerald.
Colin Canfield: As you think about 2027 revenue building blocks, rough numbers, is it fair to think of -- so like if we break it apart into like gateways, U.S. government work, international working commercial service, assuming, call it, $100 million to $200 million of gateway work, maybe $200 million to $300 million of U.S. government work and then maybe, rough numbers, $100 million to $200 million of international work and swing factor is commercial service to get to kind of the midpoint of $500 million to $1 billion revenue opportunity.
So as we think about those key building blocks, maybe, a, can you sign on to kind of, is that framework of maybe $500 million to $1 billion still kind of right framework for 2027, $750 at the midpoint? And then in terms of -- as we think about kind of what's moving forward versus what's pushing out, how do you think about kind of the key dynamic factors for -- to what to pull left?
Scott Wisniewski: Colin, thanks for the question. So we stand behind our guidance on the 12 months following commercial service start, right? We see that approaching $1 billion. And in terms of looking at calendar year next year, I think over $100 million plus of gateway sales probably makes sense. We're going to continue to build out our infrastructure. We've been doing a lot of that. So that makes sense. U.S. government, we hope to outperform, but we have just announced another $100 million contract today. And so there's going to be definitely $100 million plus of government already executed just based on pipeline. And then commercial service revenue will come in with commercial service and international revenue, we just announced J-LEO.
We haven't given a lot of feedback yet on accounting treatment for that, and we will probably in the coming months and leading into the next call. But I think as we approach the commercial service, we feel good about the following 12 months being at that approaching $1 billion or frankly, even maybe in excess given our progress on the U.S. government front. But otherwise, we're not going to give, obviously, forward guidance on revenue. But I think your building are block generally right.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Mike Crawford with B. Riley Securities.
Michael Crawford: So Firefly began codeveloping Eclipse with Northrop Grumman 4 years ago. But Blacklift is not going to do things like translunar injection. And so can you just provide some examples of what you're going to do to simplify production and also lower unit production costs for your mission, which only needs to get to a LEO reliably and at the lowest possible cost.
Abel Avellan: Yes, that's a very good question. So we are executing on Blacklift for a single-purpose mission, yes, lift BlueBird into 550 kilometers of orbit. It is no plan to go to the moon. There's no plan to go to Mars. There's no plan to flip over in space. It is designed to simply lift our satellites in the most effective and the faster way possible. So of course, we are piggybacking into over a decade of investment research and development that was put into the engine technology and the tapoff engine technology that is basically the foundation of Firefly technology for rockets that were used in the Alpha rocket plan to be used in their Eclipse rockets.
And obviously, we're also working with them very, very closely in the final integration of Blacklift. But the simplification, in our engineering philosophy, we have 2 key tenants in everything that we do on satellites and what we'll do now on rocket is best step is not a step, best part is not part and simplicity. And this rocket is designed with everything -- everything that we're doing in this rocket is designed with those 3 tenets on them.
Michael Crawford: And then just for my one follow-up question, and I don't know, maybe it's best for Andy, but can you give rough time lines on when some of these components get paid to Firefly the $400 million of cash, shares based on the forward VWAP, the amounts paid over 3 years for delivery of engines and as well as the engineering support.
Scott Wisniewski: Sure. Real quick. The upfront cash and consideration in stock will be paid imminently within days. And some of these shares will be held back in order to true up for that VWAP calculation. And then the service agreement will be paid out over 3 years, pretty much pro rata and then the supply agreement will be paid out with a little upfront payment and then do a delivery of engines. So it's pretty straightforward. But importantly, we designed it to have a mix of cash and stock so that the upfront payment was a little lower, so we could preserve capital for other things, and then we defer some of these payments over time as value is being delivered.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Tim Horan with Oppenheimer & Company.
Timothy Horan: Can you give us much detail or color as possible on the satellite manufacturing. It's been delayed for a while, but it sounds like you're extremely confident now in the delivery schedule. Can you just talk about what happened to the delay and why the confidence?
Abel Avellan: Well, we announced we have the next batch of satellites waiting for confirmation on SpaceX exact launch date. We hope that to be imminent. We have 3 more satellites ready to ship this month. And we have 6 more the month after. So we are at the rate of 6 per month starting in December for the ASIC configuration. So I think in terms of manufacturing, we are tracking very well our plan. We're on satellite 51, as we mentioned in the previous remarks, and we are accelerating, we're expanding new facilities for government opportunities that we have in front of us. But we see our ability to manufacture be materializing in about 6 satellites per month every month.
Timothy Horan: And then maybe just on the launch side, how firm are the launch commitments that you've received? And how much visibility do you have on that over the next 12 months?
Scott Wisniewski: So we feel -- very good. I mean we have a lot of contracted launch. Our launch with Blue Origin looks very promising. They're getting back to the pad very soon. And then we also have the DPAS rating that gives us access to government priority launch. So we've got a good mix of launch providers now. We've signed more launch. We've recently received a DPAS rating, and we've got more available if we wanted to pursue it.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Chris Quilty with Quilty Space.
Christopher Quilty: Just wanted to follow up. I think you mentioned for the upcoming New Glenn launch, it's 3 satellites, which is below the rockets capacity. Is that due to the availability of satellites? Or is that a risk mitigation as they return to flight?
Abel Avellan: That is a risk mitigation as they return to flight. We obviously are -- we have satellites to launch all the way to satellite 28 in the very early launch from Blue Origin coming back to launch, we don't know want to put more than 3 satellites on the immediate launch.
Christopher Quilty: Fair enough. And as a follow-up on the Black then, do you intend to use Firefly's existing launch pads? Or do you intend to build your own launch pad? And question, if the latter, is there the availability of government financing with the government's increasing focus on increasing launch access?
Abel Avellan: Yes. I think the administration had a very clear mandate of multiplying by an order of magnitude, the number of launches a year. We are very happy with the support that we're getting in terms of launch path, upgrading them. Our first launches are going to be upgrades on existing launch, which Firefly already have prearranged for their Eclipse configuration. And so -- but the answer for that, Chris, is both. We plan to use existing launch. Wallops will require an upgrade that we can fit in the time frame that we have, but we're also working on additional 2 locations, a part of the execution of Blacklift.
Christopher Quilty: And would you look at locations outside the U.S. for launch?
Abel Avellan: Not initially.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Bryan Kraft with Deutsche Bank.
Bryan Kraft: I had 2, if I could. First, I wanted to see if you could expand on the additional pipeline of approximately $1.2 billion nondilutive U.S. quasi-government financing. If you could just talk about maybe what that is, how firm it is, what can the funding be used for? And then separately, you mentioned several hundred million in incremental CapEx during '27 to support the Blacklift program. What does the incremental CapEx look like post 2027, roughly, obviously, it's early days. And can you just maybe talk high level if there would be other incremental OpEx that would be significant over the next couple of years to support the program.
I guess, maybe a lot of it will be capitalized, but just wondering if you could provide any color there. And how do you think about -- I know that Blacklift is also about flexibility and controlling your own launch. But I think it also gives you owner's economics. So I was wondering if you could talk about how you think about the breakeven point economically in terms of the number of launches or how long it might take you to breakeven on the program versus using commercial?
Scott Wisniewski: Bryan, what was the first question again, remind me? .
Bryan Kraft: The first one was if you could just expand on the quasi-government financing. Just what is that? How firm is it? Is it kind of locked in at this point? Or is it something you're pursuing that is still TBD?
Scott Wisniewski: Well, the $1.2 billion that we referenced in pipeline for quasi-governmental financing is very serious. It's comprised of a couple of different pieces. A few small components are subsidies that are active, in particular, 2 programs that one of which we've received and other that is in process. And then the balance is, think of it as first lien or CapEx support type of debt. And so those are -- one of those is done awaiting final approval, the much larger piece is something that is kind of a 6-plus month time frame, puts us kind of in the middle of 2027. So those are all pieces of paper that we're evaluating on their merits.
And -- but very active and at a minimum through kind of initial transaction approval committees and that sort of thing. So that's a very real pipeline, one we've worked for a very long time. And it's important to us to protect shareholder value. And you can see that, in fact, with the announcement today with J-LEO, with $1 billion coming in, in nondilutive financing. So that's going to be a huge focus for us, as you would expect, as it should be and that's how that pipeline is comprised.
And then in terms of go-forward CapEx, I think we said for 2027, we see several hundred million dollars of incremental CapEx for Blacklift, and those are things as you would expect, equipment, facilities, development materials, test equipment, manufacturing equipment and initial investments in the infrastructure you'll need to get these things going, whether it's at the launch pad, launch site or transportation. So those are the kind of things we'll be doing in 2027. And anything we can do to accelerate. I mean we're going to move. We've already been in planning stages and even spending money in the last several months.
So this is something that we're going to move lightning fast on, and we're going to look for any opportunity to accelerate. And at this point, I don't think we want to give guidance on 2028. And then owner's economics, I think that's pretty well understood in the industry. There are prices out there today for launch that are -- have very high margins, given kind of the shortage we experienced. And I think launch prices in the market coming down 75% to reach an owner's economics is very feasible and frankly, probably much more.
So we'll talk about that more at our Thursday event and going forward the opportunity for owner’s economics here is very, very interesting to us and a key part of the transaction. And that math is pretty simple. We'll make investments and after a period of time, especially as we access this expanded TAM, we'll start to see those benefits in a big way.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Michael Funk with Bank of America.
Michael Funk: I want to go back to the Firefly and the next-generation engines, I think you mentioned Miranda and they also have Vira next generation. So the Alpha engine, I think they've had about a 57% success rate with that engine. So first, what gives you confidence in the next-generation engines? And then, I'm sure you'll give us more details on Thursday, but with your own program for the full rocket assembly and reusability, I think only 2 companies that really were actually the SpaceX and China actually have shown success and Rocket Lab has been trying for a while and have not really proven full reusability kind of beyond the size of Falcon 9.
So just wondering if could get confidence in that component of the exercise as well. And then I'll have one follow-up, please.
Abel Avellan: Yes. I think if you see -- if history repeats itself, every successful launch company has started with a smaller rocket and then upsized it, and basically abandon the smaller rocket and stayed with bigger rocket. And that's simply the part of the development cycle. So what we have done here is basically bypass all that process, which is -- which takes anywhere between 7 and 10 years historically. Those numbers have significantly come down. If you see the eight launch companies that now exists in China and how long have they taken to get to orbit. But that's basically the normal process of learning an engine, develop a rocket and then basically upsize it.
That's what basically every successful launch providers have gotten into it. So we structured this in a way that we bypass all of that, that we get owner's economics for the engine. In other words, we had acquired the IP with certain -- within certain parameters, but we had acquired the IP to manufacture the engines and use exactly the same technology which is now hot fire over 150 times, ready to flight in terms of qualification and the testing that are going through. And that's the foundation of any rocket development.
I mean not to oversimplify, you can think about a rocket of a big tank that gets fed by a -- that fed engines to put things in a certain payload. So engine is the core of the system. And then we are partnering with Firefly also on the engineering and integration of the remaining of the system from first stage, second stage and third stage, which they have done something similar with other companies. But our focus is basically to simplify that design, simplify the way that these rockets are designed and build, take advantage of the very extensive manufacturing capability and industrial capacity that we have built, especially around composite.
I mean our satellites, if you see them and you see them stacked up, they're not that dissimilar to our first stage for a rocket. And we're reusing all of that capability in order to manufacture at rate all the composite material that get used in the rocket. I mean, the satellites are all composite now. All the structures are all composite now and this rocket is all composite as well.
Michael Funk: I look forward to hearing more on Thursday. Previous quarters, you mentioned a $1 billion run rate target 4 quarters after commercial availability. Can you reiterate that target? Or has that target changed?
Scott Wisniewski: Yes, Mike. We're -- we still believe that the revenue opportunity is approaching $1 billion in the 12 months following commercial service launch. And in fact, given the progress on the government front and on the international front, we feel increasingly confident about that, but it is based on the 12 months after commercial service launch.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Louie DiPalma with William Blair.
Louie Dipalma: Abel, Scott and Andy, for the planned trials for the intermittent service prior to year-end, are these trials contingent on 16 active satellites? Or will the trial still proceed with 13? And also will these trials be broadly available to wireless customers? Or will it be for a very select user pool?
Scott Wisniewski: Louie. So the coverage that we're lighting up for our top partners in a few key markets is providing the service to them. So we're going to -- what they're going to see is the combination of gateways working, spectrum available and nationwide availability, when a satellite is overhead. So that's a very key step here, and that's what we can do, right? So providing beta to the end user that's with our customer. And so those trials we see is happening in early 2027 after we've provided this initial availability. So we think that those beta trials are best with about 25 satellites, although there's some flexibility there.
But for us, our long-held target has been to light up that network for them, and that's what we're focused on right now with beta to follow shortly thereafter and early in the year.
Louie Dipalma: Thanks Scott. And the team previously discussed the $21 million to $23 million cost per BlueBird satellite. How does this range potentially change with Blacklift?
Scott Wisniewski: So we're doing a big unveiling this week, and we hope you or someone from your team can attend, Louie. But with owner's economics, obviously, we expect those numbers to be way lower as we reach rate and as we start launching this rocket ourselves. So that's really the whole intent, right? And so today, launches a significant majority of our unit cost. So yes, with that launch coming down, we do expect our $21 million to $23 million range to be much lower, frankly, based on kind of apples-to-apples satellite tech. So that's how to think about it. But we'll sharpen those numbers for you in the weeks to come, but think about it that way.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of David Barden with New Street Research.
David Barden: I guess, first, could you -- Abel, could you elaborate a little bit on the materiality of what it means to shift the manufacturing to an ASIC basis beyond like the 10x, does that mean -- is this like for the late people. Would this be the equivalent of the V-4 evolution of what the BlueBird could be, and that's going to be coming in satellite 31 which, I guess, under the current cadence would be a 2028 type of evolution. What does that mean in terms of service capability and capacity, that would be super helpful.
And then if I could go backwards, apologies, but the -- I learned an awful lot about satellite trajectories and orbital clearances after the BlueBird 11 failed to kind of get to where it was supposed to get, when it was supposed to get there. And so the question becomes what, if anything, have you had to do to the rest of the satellite manufacturing capability to prevent that from happening again? Or was it all a secret plan to test orbital elevations with a satellite and maybe we will see it again? That would be helpful.
Abel Avellan: I'm not sure if you are referring to BB11 or BB7?
David Barden: 11.
Abel Avellan: Okay. So BB7 was part of the last batch, 11, 12 or 13. They all deployed successful and they're in operation. BB11 took longer. We needed literally take it to spin in order to warm it up and open it, and that took longer than the other 2 satellites that were open, deploy and put in operation within weeks of the launch. BB11 took longer, but successful open and it is operation today. That do not have any change of any of our designs or any different with the old 51 satellite that are in build. So they're going to be saying that the 13 that are successfully operating. In terms of the materiality of the ASIC.
I mean, this is the most advanced ASIC, we believe, to be in orbit. It's a 7-nanometer ASIC, that basically multiply by 10, the amount of processing power per spacecraft. You basically go from 1 gigabit per second -- 1 gigahertz of processing spectrum to 10 gigabit processing spectrum. So that's what it means is more traffic per satellite. What it means is a lower cost per gigabyte deliver to an end user. That's why it's important that we do this transition as a multiplier on capacity per spacecraft.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Scott Searle with ROTH Capital Partners.
Scott Searle: Scott, maybe just a follow-up on the sovereign constellation front with the success now of J-LEO. It sounds like there are other inbound interests of similar size and magnitude. I'm wondering if you could maybe provide some parameters around the number of potential engagements that you have, the size or maybe time line, would we see another one of these materialize in '27? And second, on the spectrum front in terms of spectrum strategy, there's obviously been a little bit of a frenzy going on in the world over the last couple of quarters.
You guys have been able to employ a very spectrum light model in terms of partnering with the carriers, but you also have some of your own spectrum. So I'm wondering as you think about it from a high level over the next couple of years, is there a particular amount of capital that you're thinking about allocating for various spectrum needs, whether it's domestically or in international markets?
Scott Wisniewski: Thanks, Scott. So on the sovereign constellation front, J-LEO is a great model. There's a lot of real clear things there that others are seeking and we'll seek to reproduce. It makes a lot of sense, right? How do you gain a level of sovereign operational control when you don't have a national champion building satellites. And of course, there's no one building satellites as large as we have. So for us, yes, we see there's a lot of fruit there. Of course, the U.S. is the biggest sovereign constellation opportunity. And that's our work with the Department of War. And so that's very significant.
But in terms of international, I think we'd probably size it as about a handful of active conversations. Some have been going on for a long time, some are newer. And so these are things that I think will play out over a multiyear time frame. But I would be shocked if the strategy hasn't reproduced often over the next 5 to 10 years and including even in the near term. And that's a big reason of why we're doing with Blacklift, right? I mean we see these opportunities just rolling out in front of us, we see ourselves and our assets is uniquely positioned, and that's why we're going after it. And that's really it.
I mean, if you're a G20 country, why would you not do this? Makes perfect sense. And then on spectrum, I think what you're seeing from us is just the fact that we were first movers both on using cellular spectrum and the ecosystem we've built around 60 mobile network operators, 3 billion subs globally. And then with the L-band acquisition followed by the S-band ITU filing, which has already borne a lot of fruit. I think we were very fortunate to move fast on both those fronts. Going forward, we're never going to be the top tick on spectrum buys, of course, but we'll be smart and we're following that organic strategy.
And we don't have a bucket of capital laid out or anything like that. We're just going to be really smart with how we set up partnerships. And you see that just in the last 5 days with both the Firefly Miranda deal and the J-LEO deal. So that's how to think about what we'll do around spectrum, Scott.
Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Michael Filatov with Berenberg.
Michael Filatov: First one here, the release frames, the J-LEO contract is $1 billion of non-dilutive funding. But the 10-Q shows AST subscribing about $1.4 billion of preferred shares in the JV over 3 years. So I'm wondering if you could help us understand what the net cash benefit to AST would be after that subscription and after the satellite sales and the licensing fee it receives back from rest. And then are the J-LEO satellites part of the roughly 90 satellite plan or in addition to it? How does that fit into the constellation? And then I've got one follow-up.
Scott Wisniewski: Yes. So the short answer is, and the disclosure is not perfect, of course, but there's a lot of puts and takes. But net-net-net, the net subsidy to AST to build out satellites and both materials and launch is that $1 billion figure. So there's puts and takes both ways, some cash and noncash capital. But basically the contribution to AST of cash to subsidize satellites and launch is that figure that's quoted.
Michael Filatov: Understood. And then on the press release, you said work with all major MNOs in the U.S. and Europe. And so there's obviously one big carrier in the U.S. who you don't have a definitive partnership with at the moment. So I'm wondering if that they're included. I presume they are and to what route you would be working with those partners, whether it would be through the joint venture or directly like you have with AT&T and Verizon?
Abel Avellan: Well, I will say that our approach, partner first create an ecosystem where the operators have over 6 billion subscribers across the world is paying fruit to us. I don't want to comment about future relationships. But I will say that there's not a major operator around the globe that is very, very focused on seeing how they work with us. And at this point, I will leave it to that. I mean we're very bullish about what's going on in Europe. We're very bullish about what is going on here in the United States and around the world.
And our approach to partner with the ecosystem that holds 6 billion subscribers, hold many thousands of megahertz that we call hundreds of billions in spectrum and the ability to reach 3 billion subscribers with one click away. It is very unique, and we think that the best approach and the fastest approach to market, it is partnered with global operators. And we will continue to focus on that. We'll continue, that's why we're investing in our own launch. We see significant demand increasing towards our satellite architecture and our business model.
Operator: And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Max Colbert for closing remarks.
Maxwell Colbert: Thank you, operator. We want to thank all of our shareholders and research analysts for joining the call. We're looking forward to our Blacklift unveiling event on Thursday. We hope to see you there as well as via the webcast, which will be hosted on our Investor Relations website. Until then, thank you, and have a great rest of your week. Operator, this concludes today's call.
Operator: Thank you. And this concludes today's call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.
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