On Holding (ONON) Stock Still Looks Undervalued After A 41% Run

On Holding has delivered a strong share price gain over the past three years, which puts fresh attention on a simple question for investors: Is the current stock price adequately supported by the cash flows the business may generate over time?

• On Holding has returned 41.3% over the past three years, so a lot of optimism is already reflected in the share price and raises the stakes for what its cash flows need to deliver.
• Recent record net sales and higher profit margins suggest the company’s growing direct to consumer footprint and global reach can influence how much cash the business may produce and when those cash flows arrive.
• Prefer to judge On Holding on earnings? See why On Holding's 25.9x P/E tells a different valuation story.

The issue now is whether the cash flows implied by On Holding’s current share price look consistent with what the business can reasonably generate.

If you want to test the same cash flow question you are asking of On Holding across a wider field, scan through 33 high quality undervalued stocks.

Is On Holding Still Cheap on Cash Flow?

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model values On Holding by projecting the CHF cash it could return to shareholders and then discounting those amounts back to today. Latest twelve month free cash flow sits at about CHF 437 million, and the DCF framework then leans on a series of growing cash flow estimates that reach into the early 2030s, reflecting expectations that the business can scale its footwear and apparel reach over time.

Those rising CHF projections translate into an estimated intrinsic worth that comes out substantially above the current share price of $37.53. News of record net sales and record gross profit margin in the third quarter of 2026 helps explain why a cash flow model bakes in ongoing growth for On Holding, even if the market is not fully reflecting that in the current quote. Find out what On Holding could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate.

The On Holding Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

Simply Wall St Narratives for On Holding pick up where this valuation puzzle leaves off. They spell out which expectations around future growth, profitability and earnings would need to hold for the stock to be worth materially more or materially less than today’s price on the Community page. Each scenario links a fair value estimate to a particular view of On Holding's potential catalysts and key risks so you can track over time which storyline appears to be playing out.

The bulls and bears on On Holding are looking at the same premium model and drawing very different conclusions about how much can be paid for it today.

Bull case: 41% undervalued

The bullish analyst Narrative on Simply Wall St focuses on premium pricing, DTC density and new categories as the main upside drivers.

"Extending On Holding’s premium pricing playbook, which is already reflected in gross margin above 65%, and targeted to stay at or above this level through 2029, could create more operating leverage than consensus models by lifting gross profit faster than sales and supporting higher net margins..."

Discover why this Narrative puts On Holding at 41% undervalued.

Bear case: 55% overvalued

The bearish analyst Narrative on Simply Wall St leans on concerns about promotions, competition and sponsorship risk cutting into that same premium story.

"Although On Holding targets high gross margins and premium pricing, a cooling running market with heavier promotions and Nike’s renewed strength increases the risk that more discounting is needed to clear inventory..."

Explore why this Narrative puts On Holding at 55% overvalued.

One more On Holding check that belongs beside the cash flow math

Price and cash generation only tell part of the story, because the people steering On Holding and the way they are rewarded can shape every decision that feeds those numbers. See who runs On Holding and how they are paid.

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