Walsh Daily Bullet Points 11/10

GRAINS

• Corn up 2¼ to 3 overnight after settling 4.38¾, another four-month low
• Crop Production and WASDE land at 11 a.m. CT, with a corn yield cut widely expected
• Corn harvest is 81% complete, behind the 84% analysts expected and the 86% five-year average, with Iowa at 72% against an 89% average and Nebraska 10 points behind at 74%
• Open interest fell 5,089 Monday, the first meaningful decline in weeks, so some shorts are covering ahead of the report
• Funds are net short 22,900 corn contracts after holding a record 431,000 net long in September
• Wheat up 1½ in Chicago and 4 to 4½ in KC after Chicago settled 5.87½, another four-month low
• Winter wheat conditions improved to 49% good to excellent, up five points on the week and above the 46% expected
• Pro Farmer’s condition index for hard red winter rose 11.29 points to 337.44, with Kansas leading, and soft red rose 5.06 to 372.51
• Winter wheat planting is 89% complete, right at the five-year average
• Russia-Ukraine talks got under way in Abu Dhabi Tuesday, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner leading US mediation
• Modi told Zelensky that India is ready to help establish Black Sea grain export corridors
• Today’s USDA wheat numbers are expected to be benign
• A cold air mass surges into the eastern half of the country Wednesday night, with thunderstorms and gusty winds across the Midwest and Ohio Valley first

OILSEEDS

• Beans up 5½ to 6¼ overnight after settling 11.87, with meal up 3.50 to 3.80 and soyoil down 18 to 25 points
• USDA is expected to raise the soybean yield again today, with StoneX at 55 bushels against the current record 53.1
• Soybean harvest is 92% complete, a point ahead of the five-year average
• Funds still hold a net long of 132,799 in beans, so there’s length left to liquidate if the report reads bearish
• Crush printed 201¾ on the January sheet, with meal at 50.74% of product value
• Cordonnier left Brazil beans at 182 million tonnes and Argentina at 54 million, both neutral
• Southern Brazil got the above-normal rain that was forecast, which hurt early crop development, while central and northern areas have been better than expected though still short on soil moisture
• Argentina may plant more corn than intended, with planting ahead of normal, better profitability and low corn leafhopper numbers
• Open interest: beans +7,446, meal −2,342, soyoil −3,593
• Malaysian palm was close to unchanged overnight after last week’s slide to a March low

LIVESTOCK

• Cattle bounced a second day, February live cattle up 3.08 to 220.28, January feeders up 6.43 to 324.80
• The trigger was Tyson partnering with rancher group Allied Beef to reopen a second shift at its Amarillo beef plant
• Gains were trimmed after USDA reported sharply lower cash trade at midday
• Hogs rose 2.45 to 55.98 on short covering after a run of contract lows
• Tuesday’s CME hog index is down another $1.29 at $60.28, so cash is still falling even as futures bounce

SOFTS

• Cocoa fell 154 to 5,113, the biggest move in the group
• Sugar down 3 to 18.21
• Cotton settled 78.78, down 33
• Cocoa down 154 to 5,113, below $5,100 for the first time since early July
• ICE stocks hit 3,740,476 bags, a two-and-a-half year high
• Next season looks tight, Ivory Coast’s mid-crop could fall 42% to 50%, and StoneX sees global output down 9.6%, which would flip a surplus into a deficit
• Sugar down 3 to 18.21, still pressured by crude, since cheap oil sends Brazilian cane back to sugar instead of ethanol
• Coffee settled 267.25 in March, down 4.40
• Cotton 78.78, down 33, holding its recovery above 78 cents

FINANCIALS

• Big rebound in stocks Monday--- Dow up 1,104.02, S&P up 173.08, Nasdaq 100 up 917.63
• Brent crashed 7% Monday and fell below $90 this morning for the first time since August on hopes for an Iran resolution, even with a fresh Saudi pipeline attack
• WTI settled 87.09, down 3.74
• CPI expected up 0.3% on the month against 0.6% in September, core up 0.2%, with no year-over-year comparison because last year’s shutdown wiped out the October 2025 reading
• Fed Governor Chris Waller said overnight the Fed should consider a half-point hike next month if core comes in around 0.3% or more, saying a quarter-point “would put our credibility at risk”
• Gold rose 52.30 to 4,116.80 and silver gained 1.473 to 53.415
• Natural gas jumped more than 7% to a four-week high of $3.218 on colder eastern forecasts and stronger LNG feedgas demand
• Gasoline fell below $4 a gallon nationally for the first time since July at $3.9788, down from $4.3669 a month ago, while diesel is $6.1572
• 10-year 4.897%, with yields rising Monday as money moved back into stocks

CURRENCIES

• Dollar index 101.66, down 0.63 Monday on Iran talks lifting risk, up 0.1% this morning after Waller’s half-point comments
• Euro 1.1236, advancing toward 1.1200 before CPI

SETTLEMENTS

• Dec corn 4.38¾ (−2¾) · Dec Chicago wheat 5.87½ (−3¾) · Mar KC wheat 6.31¾ (−¾)
• Jan beans 11.87 (−6¾) · Jan meal 320.80 (+1.10) · Jan soyoil 62.08 (−0.33)
• Feb live cattle 220.28 (+3.08) · Jan feeders 324.80 (+6.43) · Dec hogs 55.98 (+2.45)
• Mar cocoa 5,113 (−154) · Mar sugar 18.21 (−0.03)
• Crush (Jan): 201¾ --- meal 50.74%, oil 49.26%

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