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    Earnings Update Might Change The Case For Investing In NatWest Group (LSE:NWG)

    Simply Wall St·11/10/2026 13:25:31
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    • NatWest Group reported third quarter 2026 net interest income of £3,559 million and net income of £1,614 million, alongside a completed £397.91 million share buyback covering 0.78% of its shares.
    • The contrast between higher net interest income and slightly lower quarterly net income, together with reduced share count, highlights how mix, costs, and capital returns are shaping NatWest Group’s earnings per share profile.
    • We will now look at how NatWest Group's higher net interest income may influence the investment narrative built around capital efficiency.

    Scan how NatWest Group's capital returns compare with those of its peers by reviewing a hand-picked set of banks and financials screened for list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (9 results).

    NatWest Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own NatWest Group, you need to be comfortable with a bank that leans heavily on net interest income while trying to build more fee based and capital light lines through areas like Evelyn Partners and commercial lending. The analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St assumes that cost control and fee income help offset pressure where mortgage and loan margins are guided to flatten.

    The latest quarter fits that tension. Net interest income was £3,559 million, yet quarterly net income and earnings per share were slightly lower than a year ago. That keeps the main near term risk in clear view: pressure on spreads and funding costs if loan growth keeps outpacing deposits.

    The completed £397.91 million buyback, covering 0.78% of shares, is the announcement that most directly ties into this earnings update. It turns headline profits and capital generation into a more concentrated claim on future cash flows for each remaining share, as long as the balance sheet strength that underpins these repurchases is maintained.

    You can read that buyback alongside catalysts in the analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St, such as the larger wealth platform from Evelyn Partners and the push to lower the cost to income ratio with AI and process improvements. The key execution question is whether those operational levers and fee streams offset guided margin flattening and any rise in funding or tax headwinds.

    What The Current NatWest Group Assumptions Look Like

    NatWest Group's narrative projects £20.8 billion revenue and £7.0 billion earnings by 2029. This corresponds to 7.1% yearly revenue growth and a £1.0 billion earnings increase from £6.0 billion today.

    Uncover why NatWest Group's fair value indicates a 31% potential upside to its current price, which could narrow quickly.

    LSE:NWG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    LSE:NWG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community cluster between about £7.78 and £13.26, so you see very different views on where NatWest Group should trade. Those figures ignore the recent buyback and mixed earnings update, which could shift sentiment. Use this spread as a prompt to compare several alternative viewpoints.

    Explore 3 other NatWest Group fair value estimates, including one that suggests it could be worth just £7.78!

    Decide For Yourself

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

    Looking for more NatWest Group style investment ideas?

    If you want to pressure test your view on NatWest Group and widen your opportunity set, use the Simply Wall St Screener to scan for other companies that fit the kind of balance sheet strength, income profile, or income stream you are targeting.