Surprised By Las Vegas Sands’ Slide? What Investors Missed

Las Vegas Sands looked well positioned on paper, with bullish analysts in mid 2025 expecting a powerful ramp at The Londoner Macao and Marina Bay Sands, along with steadily rising margins and a shrinking share count. For Las Vegas Sands shareholders, the loss over the past year was 37.7%, including dividends. If you had bought based on expectations for 2028 earnings, higher Asian middle class demand, and richer baccarat hold, which of those specific assumptions now deserves the closest scrutiny?

Las Vegas Sands has already moved. See which of 33 high quality undervalued stocks still trade below our estimates.

The Argument You Would Have Been Weighing Up On Las Vegas Sands

The shares cost US$65.21 at the start of the period, and anyone looking at Las Vegas Sands then had to choose between two very different but reasonable stories.

The bullish view, with a Fair Value of US$72.5 that reflected what its supporters thought the stock was worth if their assumptions played out, leaned on Asia's middle class fueling Macao and Singapore resorts and on earnings reaching US$2.7b by about July 2028 with a 19.7x P/E assumption.

The more cautious narrative, with a Fair Value of US$59.9 that captured a tempered set of expectations, still assumed 6.8% annual revenue growth to about September 2028, but was concerned that Macao's slower market and a missed New York expansion would cap what Las Vegas Sands could reasonably earn.

What The Las Vegas Sands Results Put To The Test

Las Vegas Sands reported Q3 2026 revenue of US$3.216b and net income of US$304m, both below Q3 2025, and net margin slipped from 12.6% to 9.5%. That result undercut the more bullish ideas about a smooth margin lift and earnings power by 2028, while still leaving room for the more cautious case that assumed slower but positive progress. The evidence cut both ways.

The key swing factor was profitability, not just headline sales. For any future resort operator you look at, track whether net margin is moving toward or away from the level reflected in long term P/E and earnings forecasts.

What Las Vegas Sands’ Lower Price Now Asks You To Believe

Las Vegas Sands now trades at US$40.18, with this Narrative’s Fair Value sitting above that level according to the analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St. The reset comes after earnings misses and concerns about Macau profitability and Marina Bay Sands setbacks.

The Narrative leans on premium mass visitors in Macau and future Singapore expansion still compounding earnings power. For the recent fall to look like an opening rather than a warning, a buyer today would need to believe reinvestment in Asian resorts keeps premium guests loyal despite policy, cost and competition pressure.

"The main factor that has to go right is that Las Vegas Sands continues to reinvest effectively in its Asian resorts and maintain high quality service, so that premium customers and MICE visitors keep choosing its properties despite competitive and regulatory pressures."

One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its higher Fair Value, assumptions and all

Which Company Could Surprise You Next?

Passing on this one could have spared you a loss. Where might you find the opposite surprise? Start looking for companies whose prices leave room for a better outcome than investors expect. These three trade below our estimated value.

• Company 1 - 31% below our estimate - integrates cloud, subscription software and AI tasks on a shared infrastructure base.
• Company 2 - 38% below our estimate - focuses on AI-driven airfreight routing and compliance-heavy shipments demanding specialized handling.
• Company 3 - 26% below our estimate - concentrates elevated-cost gold extraction within areas exposed to operational and political disruption.

Those are three of them. See every one of the 25 solid balance sheet companies →

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com