US stock outlook | Futures for the three major stock indexes had mixed ups and downs, the Federal Reserve's Waller may raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December, and the US CPI for October hits hard tonight

Pre-market market trends

1. Before the US stock market on November 10 (Tuesday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.36%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.12%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.19%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 1.33%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.47%, the French CAC40 index rose 1.15%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 1.22%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 1.15% to $85.85 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 1.35% to $91.32 per barrel.

Market news

Cost half surged nearly 7% + oil prices cooled down, and AI computing power counterattacked “another hurdle”: tonight's CPI data became a litmus test. US technology stocks have just experienced a strong recovery trend after a sharp decline. The US CPI inflation data for October, which will be released on Tuesday evening Beijing time, immediately became the latest test for the continuation of a major rebound in technology stocks dominated by the AI computing power theme. The market currently expects overall and core CPI to rise 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, month-on-month. What the current CPI inflation data really needs to answer is whether energy cooling can drive broader price pressure relief, or whether the stickiness of the service industry and demand for AI construction continue to support the Federal Reserve's tightening policy. Strong employment has increased the economy's ability to withstand interest rate hikes. Service price stickiness and data center demand for electricity, equipment, and construction personnel may prolong price pressure. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike of 25 basis points in December is still over 80%.

Federal Reserve Waller: Supports the December rate hike. If inflation accelerates, consider adding 50 basis points. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said on Tuesday that he supports raising interest rates in December and warned that if inflation continues to accelerate, he will support raising interest rates by 50 basis points to maintain the Federal Reserve's credibility. Waller's blunt statement is the strongest signal from Federal Reserve officials so far — not only do policymakers need to raise interest rates in December, but the rate increase may exceed market expectations by 25 basis points. Waller said that despite a strong economy and a stable labor market, inflation is still too high. Waller said, “If inflation improves month-on-month in October, as I expected, I am inclined to support raising the policy interest rate by 25 basis points.” “But if the October CPI data released later today is similar to the previous two months' readings — core CPI inflation is around 0.3% or higher — then stronger policy action may be needed. In this case, I think a 50 basis point increase in interest rates should be considered at the December meeting.”

The local chairman of the Federal Reserve's “hawk” is loud! Goulsby warned that the AI investment boom may cause the economy to overheat, and Barkin supports continued interest rate hikes. Both local Federal Reserve presidents expressed concern over continued high inflation. Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby warned that the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) data center construction may exacerbate the overheating of the US economy and prompt the Federal Reserve to take more aggressive countermeasures. Goulsby believes that the US job market and overall economic growth have remained stable, and the main problem facing the current economy is still too high inflation. Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin said that strong demand and stubborn inflation mean that interest rates still need to be raised further. However, Barkin added that considering the risks in the economic outlook, the pace of interest rate hikes should remain cautious.

The easing of the situation in the Middle East is expected to depress oil prices! At one point, oil oil fell below 90 US dollars, and US gasoline returned to the “3 dollar era.” The decline in international oil prices deepened as traders increased their bets on the possibility of a resolution of the Middle East war. At the same time, as international oil prices fell, gasoline prices also declined. US gasoline prices fell below $4 per gallon for the first time since July. Since the US midterm elections, market hopes for progress in peace negotiations and the restoration of energy supply in the Middle East have heated up. US congressional Democrats are considering whether to use the December 11 government shutdown deadline to pressure Trump to end the conflict, which has now entered its ninth month. After the midterm election results showed that the conflict was unpopular, Trump said, on the one hand, that the US is still in a state of “waiting and ready to act at any time,” and on the other hand, he also sent a signal that he hopes to gradually end the conflict.

Individual stock news

Wong In-hoon and Nvidia (NVDA.US) are being sued in a class action lawsuit for allegedly defrauding shareholders! Five minutes after the US stock market closed on November 9, Nvidia and Wong In-hoon faced a shareholders' class action lawsuit accusing them of allegedly defrauding shareholders. The plaintiff alleges that Wong In-hoon had an extramarital affair with a former executive of a Singaporean data center company (Megaspeed). Nvidia and Hwang In-hoon themselves did not publicly disclose this personal relationship to outside investors, thereby harming the company's reputation and future business development prospects. The plaintiff claimed that Nvidia and Wong In-hoon bear legal responsibility and compensation for this, but the specific amount of the claim has not yet been specified in the lawsuit. Affected by the related turmoil, Hwang In-hoon's stay became the focus of the market. Currently, the market is currently mainly divided into two groups. “Pessimists” think that losing Hwang In-hoon would be “immeasurable,” while “optimists” think that Hwang In-hoon is not that important.

Anthropic's IPO plans to raise up to US$64.4 billion, adding up to US$26 billion in private placement, the total financing amount may reach US$90.4 billion. According to Anthropic's latest regulatory documents, the company plans to issue shares in the price range of 70 to 78 US dollars per share. The maximum amount of capital raised in the IPO can reach 64.4 billion US dollars. It will also raise 26 billion US dollars through private placement with cornerstone investors such as Google and Nvidia. The total financing amount for the two parts is up to 90.4 billion US dollars. This listing will be the first public market test of the valuation, growth prospects and risks of cutting-edge AI companies. Although demand for Claude products drove a 47% month-on-month increase in revenue in the third quarter to US$16.96 billion, the company still faced huge infrastructure cost pressure brought about by AI competition, security risks, and nearly $900 billion in computing power promises.

Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)'s Q3 revenue increased 73% year over year, and the backlog of orders reached US$3.57 billion, but losses widened. According to financial reports, the company's Q3 revenue increased by about 73% year-on-year to US$268 million, a record high, higher than the company's previous guidance ceiling of US$250 million to US$265 million and the agreed market expectations of US$257 million; the loss per share was US$0.12, which was US$0.05 lower than market expectations. GAAP's net loss of $79.7 million increased year over year, mainly hampered by $27.3 million in debt settlement losses, $21.3 million in transaction costs for the acquisition of Iridium, and $3.5 million in taxes. By the end of September, the backlog of orders reached 3.57 billion US dollars, an increase of 52% over the previous month, and an increase of about 1.2 billion US dollars in a single quarter, including 1 billion US dollars in new launch contracts and 470 million US dollars in space systems contracts. The backlog of launch orders increased to 117 launches, a record. In terms of guidance, the company expects fourth-quarter revenue of 270 million to 290 million US dollars, non-GAAP gross margin of 39% to 41%, GAAP gross margin of 34% to 36%, and adjusted EBITDA loss of 14 million to 20 million US dollars. As of press release, Rocket Lab's US stock fell more than 6% before the market on Tuesday.

Q3 revenue nearly tripled! AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) is speeding up “going to the sky”, and 45 satellites will be in orbit in 2027. According to the third quarter financial report released by AST SpaceMobile, a satellite direct-connected mobile broadband company, revenue increased 188% year over year to US$42.3 million, mainly due to gateway equipment delivery and the achievement of US government project milestones, which is in line with the company's quarterly revenue pace in 2026. However, with large-scale networking investment, net losses increased simultaneously, indicating that the company is still at a critical stage of burning money to build a network and waiting for revenue to be released. The company reiterated that it will maintain its annual revenue guide of 150 million to 200 million US dollars, and stated that the recent signing of new contracts may bring room for improvement; at the same time, it also confirmed that it aims to achieve initial and intermittent nationwide coverage in key markets such as the US, Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom by the end of 2026, and launch the first batch for strategic partners. In addition, management aims to have about 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by mid-2027, and a launch agreement for the total deployment of more than 100 satellites from 2027 to 2028 has already been settled.

Relying on Bitcoin's book profit to “reverse losses”: MARA (MARA.US)'s net profit for Q3 was US$632 million, yet revenue plummeted 35% to a nine-quarter low. According to the third-quarter earnings report released by Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings (MARA.US), revenue fell 35% year over year to US$164.2 million, lower than market expectations of US$176.1 million. The main reason for the decline in revenue was that the average price of bitcoins mined plummeted 37% year over year, and this alone erased revenue of about 94.8 million US dollars. The company's revenue has been declining for four consecutive quarters, and the current level is the lowest in nearly nine quarters. In stark contrast to revenue is the profit side. Net profit for the quarter was $632.1 million; diluted earnings per share were $1.28, far exceeding market expectations of a loss of $0.10 per share. However, the composition of this profit is worth being wary of — it includes $885.3 million of unrealized fair value change earnings from Bitcoin holdings (US$343.1 million in the same period last year), which is a typical “paper profit”; after excluding this, the company's operating side is actually still in a state of loss.

Take-Two (TTWO.US) Q2 revenue declined, losses narrowed, and GTA 6's immediate pre-sale was “unprecedented.” According to financial reports, the company's net bookings (Net Bookings) for the quarter were US$1,600 million, down 18% year on year, slightly lower than the company's previous guidance range of US$1,620 billion to US$1,670 billion; revenue of US$150 billion, down 15.4% year on year, also lower than the market's agreed expectations of about US$1.66 billion. Under GAAP, the net loss was US$54 million; the loss per share was US$0.29, which was significantly narrower than the loss of $0.73 per share in the same period last year. The management reiterated the annual net reservation amount guideline of US$8 billion to US$8.2 billion, and for the first time gave a net booking guideline of US$3.350 billion to US$3.50 billion for the third fiscal quarter, implying that GAAP net revenue would “more than double” this quarter, but this range falls short of the LSEG statistics's agreed estimate of US$3,510 billion. The company's CEO commented positively on the release of the new “GTA” series, pointing out that pre-orders “far exceeded” initial expectations and helped offset the weaker-than-expected net pre-orders for “NBA 2K”.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)'s Q3 net profit surged 148% year over year to US$1,637 billion, reducing debt by a total of US$10.4 billion during the year. Thanks to the rise in energy prices compared to the same period last year, Occidental Petroleum achieved year-on-year growth in Q3 revenue and net profit. According to financial reports, Occidental Petroleum's third-quarter revenue increased by about 19% year on year to US$6.567 billion, but decreased by about 19% month on month. In non-GAAP terms, Occidental's adjusted net profit from continuing operations in the third quarter was US$1,951 million, up about 280% year over year; adjusted diluted earnings per share were US$1.91, compared to US$0.51, compared to US$2.40 in the previous quarter. Debt reduction was also a major focus of this quarter's earnings report. Occidental Petroleum said that the principal amount of debt was further reduced by 1.8 billion US dollars in the third quarter, reducing the principal debt to 10 billion US dollars, reaching the company's important deleveraging goals. Since this year, the company has repaid a total of 10.4 billion US dollars in debt.

Hollywood supergiant Skydance (SKYD.US)'s Q3 core streaming revenue surged 21%, doubling consolidated revenue in the first half of the year. The third-quarter financial report covers the original Paramount Skydance business as of September 30. Warner Bros. Exploration (WBD) was delivered on October 6, and the consolidated list only began in the fourth quarter. According to the company's comparable caliber, revenue for the third quarter was 7.025 billion US dollars, up 5% year on year, slightly lower than the agreed forecast of 7.070 billion US dollars and about 45 million US dollars lower. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.45 were $0.32 higher than FactSet's unanimous market expectations of $0.13 and $0.27 higher than the higher-level consensus forecast of $0.18 shown by Zacks. According to the data, Skydance's Paramount streaming media price increases and advertising monetization were effective, and the company also clarified the cost reduction route for Warner's integration, but the release of Warner's single films fell short of expectations, which may reduce profits for the fourth quarter by up to 200 million US dollars compared to previous expectations. The market appears to be rebalancing the pace at which the company's growth associated with Warner's mergers and acquisitions has been realized.

Honda Motor (HMC.US)'s net profit increased 65.7% in the first half of the year, and plans to expand production capacity in North America and Brazil. According to financial reports, Honda's sales revenue from April to September was 12.04 trillion yen, up 13.2% year on year; operating profit was 648.7 billion yen, up 48.1% year on year, operating profit margin 5.4%; net profit to mother was 516.7 billion yen, up 65.7% year on year, with earnings per share 132 yen; adjusted operating profit after excluding EV-related losses was 1.1336 trillion yen, up 71.3% year on year. The motorcycle business continues to be a pillar of profit. Sales in the first half of the year were 11.9 million vehicles, up 10.6% year on year, a record high for the same period; operating profit was 439 billion yen, up 19.2% year on year, and profit margin 19.3%. The full-year guidance was raised: sales revenue of 24.4 trillion yen, an increase of 250 billion yen; operating profit of 780 billion yen, an increase of 130 billion yen; net profit to mother of 500 billion yen, an increase of 100 billion yen; and adjusted operating profit of 1.3 trillion yen.

Vodafone (VOD.US) changed from profit to loss in the first half of the year, and the German business became a major drag. Vodafone's results for the first half of fiscal year 2027 showed total revenue of US$21.9 billion (€21,853 billion), up 11.4% year on year; service revenue of 18.4 billion euros, up 12.8% year on year and up 5.8% organically. Germany is still the weakest link - organic service revenue increased by only 0.4% in the first half of the year, and declined 0.5% in the second quarter to a net loss of 3.6 billion euros in the first half of the year (profit of 1.1 billion euros in the same period of the previous year), mainly due to three non-cash items: impairment of German goodwill of 4.85 billion euros (mainly due to adverse changes in interest rates), and the deduction of 2.25 billion euros in UK deferred income (due to the wholly-owned acquisition of VodafoneThree), was partially offset by one-time income of 3 billion euros generated by Safaricom's merger; after adjustment, earnings per share were 1.48 billion euros, a significant decrease from the previous year (year-on-year decrease of 1.48 billion euros). 6.92 euro cents for the same period), mainly due to the decline in investment income from 1.1 billion euros to 300 million euros.

Key economic data and event forecasts

US October CPI data at 21:30 Beijing time

22:35 Beijing time 2026 FOMC voting committee and Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan delivered a speech

The next day at 01:00 Beijing time, EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report

At 02:30 the next day Beijing time, 2028 FOMC voting committee and Kansas Federal Reserve Chairman Schmid delivered a speech

The next day at 07:30 Beijing time, 2026 FOMC voting committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Paulson delivered a speech

Performance Forecast

Wednesday morning: CoreWeave (CRWV.US), Petrobras (PBR.US), Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US), Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US)