AMD (AMD.US) soared 13% to the best in half a year, but the “big short” Bury threw cold water: the rebound catalyzed by Nvidia News may not necessarily be a new round of market conditions

The Zhitong Finance App learned that AMD (AMD.US) recorded the best single-day performance in six months. It closed up 13.26% to $508.58 on Monday (November 9), and closed at $449.04 the previous trading day. Two drivers: the Google Cloud TPU 8TX platform chose the fifth-generation EPYC as the host CPU; Oppenheimer raised the rating from “equal to the market” to “outperforming the market” on Sunday. Nvidia (NVDA.US) closed down 4.27% to $178.67 on the same day, while “big short” Michael Burry (Michael Burry) wrote in a pay column: “AMD has risen because of Nvidia news, but I won't make this deal.”

Of the 13% increase, the two catalysts each accounted for half

This is a voluminous emotional recovery, not a slow increase in valuation. 50.7 million shares were traded, about 123% higher than the three-month average; the intraday range was 468.21 to 515.18 US dollars. Even so, the stock is 22.8% below its 52-week high of $658.52.

The starting point of the rebound was a week ago's slump. On November 5, AI capital expenditure returns and regulatory concerns erupted. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 12%, Nvidia fell 9%, and AMD fell 17.26% to $404.40 in a single day. After four trading days, it was reported that AMD announced the fifth-generation EPYC to provide host computing power for the Google Cloud TPU 8TX. The platform is the first TPU system to use hardware-enforced confidential computing to protect model weight and enterprise data during processing.

“EPYC's leading performance and mature ecosystem have been proven in large-scale deployments, making it the host CPU of choice for custom accelerators.” AMD CEO Su Zifeng said during an earnings call last week. According to the company, EPYC has served more than 10 hyperscale cloud vendors and cutting-edge AI laboratories.

From “grabbing CPU share” to “supplying AI computing power at scale”

Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer wrote in the report: “AMD's success in server CPUs and data center AI is undisputed.” Target price of $600: About 18% compared to Monday's close, or about 34% based on the November 6 closing of $449.04. The bank expects the data center business to increase 135% in 2027, accounting for about 85% of sales at that time; computing power will rise to about 3 GW in 2027 and 4 GW in 2028.

Freedom Broker maintained a “buy” on the same day, and the target price was raised from $460 to $620, implying 21.9%, saying that the third quarter marked AMD's shift from “expanding CPU market share” to “large-scale supply of AI infrastructure.”

The company's own tone is more aggressive. Revenue for the third quarter (announced on November 3) was US$13.4 billion, up 45% year on year, of which data centers were US$8.5 billion, a record increase of 97%; revenue guidance for the fourth quarter was approximately US$17 billion, fluctuating 3% up and down. Su Zifeng said that in 2027, the company's revenue will increase by more than 80%, more than double last year's long-term financial analyst model; server revenue will double, data centers will contribute more than 80% of sales next year, and AI revenue within the sector will surpass server CPU revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026. Early customers of Helios racks include Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle.

There was also the opposite in the same quarter: game revenue fell 40% year over year, with clients and games totaling 3.7 billion US dollars, down 8%. The company also expects a double-digit decline in PC shipments next year.

Nvidia's governance ceiling has become AMD's tailwind

AMD's “easy” rise was due in part to the need for a place for capital. On November 8, Nvidia's board of directors announced the launch of an independent investigation into a matter involving CEO Wong In-hoon's personal actions. Earlier, there were reports that he had been involved in external intelligence activities; the board said there was no reason to believe that the company's secrets or national security had been compromised, and Wong In-hoon continued as CEO.

Bank of America characterized this as an “additional ceiling, but it has not yet become a profitable event,” maintaining Nvidia's “buy” rating and a target price of $350 (which is estimated to be 96% compared to the previous close), and pointed out that Nvidia's distractions may benefit AMD, Broadcom (AVGO.US), and Maywell Technology (MRVL.US), but suppliers with greater exposure to China will face higher fluctuations due to expanded scrutiny. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives called the incident “a stain” on Wong In-hoon and expected Congress to step in to inquire — this was his expectation, not a confirmed development.

Bury: I didn't touch this deal, but not a single empty order was withdrawn

Bury's caution with AI chips began in June: at the time, he disclosed shorting the iShares semiconductor ETF (SOXX) on the grounds that valuations were overstretched and AI infrastructure spending was unsustainable. Last month, he concentrated most of his short exposure on the Nasdaq 100 Index and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which expired in April and June 2027, respectively, and were 20% off price at the time of disclosure. He also accused Nvidia of intervening in March to keep AMD out of an Oracle-related AI infrastructure deal.

But he is not ideologically bearish on AMD; it is price-dependent: “If AMD were cheaper, I would buy it because if Nvidia were eventually sued for antitrust, AMD could get three times as much compensation.”

Last week, SMH fell sharply by 11.21% in a single day to $447.73 (November 5). He sold 25% of his SMH selling rights, while stressing that “even if this part is sold, the remaining position is still a very large position.” The rest of the short structure remains unchanged: Oracle, Palantir, QQQ, and Caterpillar continue to hold selling rights, of which Caterpillar reduced its holdings by 75% after quadrupling the selling value; he is also buying — increasing MercadoLibre holdings by 50% at less than $1,500 per share.

The target of his bet is “Nvidia's agent” itself: Nvidia accounts for 20.57% of SMH's weight, and when Nvidia fell 9.26% on November 5, this ETF fell almost as hard as an individual stock.

Retail sentiments have reached the other end. On Stocktwits, AMD's sentiment reading jumped from “bullish” to “extremely bullish,” and 24-hour message volume surged 277%. The difference ultimately fell on valuation: LSEG data showed that 48 of the 56 analysts covering AMD gave a “buy” or “strong buy,” but the price targets ranged from $550 for Morgan Stanley to $800 for Citi; according to the same source, AMD shares are about 100 times the previous 12-month profit. This is exactly the reason Bury stated when shorting SOXX in June; only this time, he doesn't plan to rely on a piece of news to make a judgment.