Mwb Sees Rheinmetall's Expected FY30 Outlook Cut 'Largely Discounted'

12:44 AM EST, 11/10/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Mwb Research believes Rheinmetall's (RHM.F) recent sell-off showed the German arms maker's full-year 2026 performance is fully priced in, with "nothing left to discover," and that an anticipated reduction to its 2030 targets is already "largely discounted." "What remains is the medium-term ambition. The Q3 Q&A call gave no clear answer, and we now regard a significant cut as priced-in, too. The CMD framework rests on three pillars: sales of c. EUR 50bn, an operating margin > 20% and a rolling 3 year CCR > 50%. The sales target includes c. 10% M&A, implying c. EUR 45bn organically. In our view, Rheinmetall will most likely not be able to deliver all three organically, and even EUR 45bn looks extremely ambitious given the current backlog and execution problems," according to a Monday note. The research firm forecasts 35 billion euros in organic sales in 2030 before tapering to 30 billion euros in the terminal period as growth in defense spending is expected to flatten. While Rheinmetall must rebuild guidance credibility, mwb noted that Chief Executive Officer Armin Papperger's purchase of 700,000 euros worth of shares during the decline reinforces long-term confidence. "A more conservative guidance would help to regain capital market confidence though it may look as a shock on the first view. After the drop, we upgrade to BUY from HOLD with an unchanged PT of EUR 1,050," analysts wrote.