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Earnings Miss: Aperam S.A. Missed EPS By 77% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Aperam S.A. (AMS:APAM) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €1.5b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 77%, coming in at just €0.09 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Aperam are now predicting revenues of €7.26b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a notable 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 73% to €3.69. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €7.31b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.32 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Aperam
The average price target fell 6.2% to €47.00, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Aperam, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €63.00 and the most bearish at €38.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aperam's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Aperam is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 15% annualised growth until the end of 2027. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.3% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.9% per year. So it looks like Aperam is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Aperam's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aperam. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Aperam analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Aperam has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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