Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock May Be 25% Undervalued After Raised 2026 Guidance

Simon Property Group has rallied strongly in recent years, and with the stock now around US$233, the key question is whether that price lines up with the cash flows its properties are expected to generate.

• Over the past 3 years the share price has returned 133.6%, which puts a lot of weight on whether the current valuation is fully supported by Simon Property Group's underlying cash generation.
• Recent updates on rent levels, occupancy and new investments suggest management is leaning on its property portfolio to support future cash flows, which can affect how investors think about the timing and durability of those inflows.
• What if you looked at Simon Property Group through its earnings instead? See what Simon Property Group's 16.7x P/E says about the price.

The issue now is whether the current share price is justified by the cash flows implied by Simon Property Group's Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value estimate.

If you are weighing Simon Property Group through the lens of its cash flows, it can help to compare that lens with other companies screened for 40 high quality undervalued stocks

Is Simon Property Group Still Cheap on Cash Flow?

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach looks at the cash Simon Property Group can generate for shareholders and discounts it back to today. On this model, the business is currently producing roughly $4.0b of free cash flow based on the latest twelve months, with analysts and internal estimates pointing to higher Adjusted Funds From Operations over time rather than shrinking payouts.

Projected free cash flows in the coming decade step up from that base, then transition into more modest growth, which is typical for a mature real estate platform with an established portfolio. Because Simon Property Group recently raised its 2026 FFO guidance and lifted the dividend, the stronger operating backdrop helps explain why the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) outcome sits meaningfully above the current share price of $233.01. Find out what Simon Property Group could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate.

The Simon Property Group Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where the Discounted Cash Flow puzzle for Simon Property Group leaves off and explain which paths for growth, margins and earnings would need to occur for the stock to be worth materially more or less than it is today. Each scenario links its figures to a clear view on how Simon Property Group's cash generation, profitability and risks might change, giving you a reference point you can revisit as new information appears on the Community page.

One of the top narratives on Simon Property Group: roughly fairly valued

This Narrative is the analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St, which compiles analysts' consensus price target and revenue and earnings forecasts, not one person's view.

"The current valuation implies that Simon Property Group is priced as if the combination of rising rents, media and data monetisation, and disciplined capital allocation will not fully flow through to higher long-term cash flows and a higher share price..."

Discover why this Narrative puts Simon Property Group at roughly fairly valued.

One more Simon Property Group angle that can change how you see the whole story

The cash flows and share price only tell part of the story. The people steering Simon Property Group and the way their rewards are structured can heavily influence what happens next. See who runs Simon Property Group and how they are paid.

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