Bitcoin Could Bottom in December, Prominent Bearish Analyst Predicts

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has dropped to its 20-week moving average, with analyst Benjamin Cowen warning that further downside could follow amid stock market weakness and historical midterm-year selling pressure.

Why Could Bitcoin Fall Further?

In a podcast on Nov. 9 Cowen said Bitcoin has entered its bull market support band, which consists of the 20-week simple moving average and 21-week exponential moving average.

He expects BTC to eventually break below this support zone. His analysis is based on several bearish signals:

• Bitcoin bounced from its 21-week EMA before falling toward its 20-week SMA flashing weakening support. This mirrors patterns seen in Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and the Nasdaq.
• Bitcoin closed back below its 50-week moving average after briefly breaking above it, suggesting a potential bull trap.
• Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could face another major sell-off in Q4.
• Continued Nasdaq weakness could drag Bitcoin lower as investors reduce exposure to riskier assets.

Cowen noted that Bitcoin’s recent breakout above its 50-week moving average delivered gains of only around 10%, compared with roughly 30% advances following similar breakouts in 2019 and 2023.

He also highlighted Bitcoin’s reversal below its May high as further evidence of a failed bullish breakout.

Bitcoin Could Bottom In December

Cowen expects Bitcoin to decline in stages, with temporary rebounds before a potential final bottom in Q4, following earlier lows in February and summer.

Historical patterns following the Fed’s first-rate hike point to weakness around days 58 and 94.

With the current cycle near day 54, Cowen sees December as a potential bottoming window.

He also cited Bitcoin’s December 2018 low, suggesting the upcoming Fed meeting could mark a turning point if investors anticipate an end to rate hikes.

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