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Genius Sports Limited Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.4% to US$5.97 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$270m beat expectations by 3.3%. Unfortunately statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of the mark, turning in a loss of US$0.06 compared to previous analyst expectations of a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Genius Sports' 20 analysts is for revenues of US$1.28b in 2027. This reflects a sizeable 43% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Genius Sports is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.14 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.30b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.23 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Genius Sports
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$10.24, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Genius Sports, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$15.00 and the most bearish at US$6.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Genius Sports' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 33% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 24% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Genius Sports is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$10.24, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Genius Sports going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Genius Sports you should know about.
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