Crude Nears October Support Ahead of Qatar Talks as Nat Gas Tests $3.05
Barchart·11/09/2026 08:37:07
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Top 3 Things to Watch into the Energy Close
December crude at $88.51: A settlement below support at the October lows could open last week’s $86.65 low and the bottom of the base at $86.00. Holding above it keeps December in its range, with the 50 day at $92.94 overhead.
The Qatar meeting and this week’s outlooks: Signs of progress from today’s White House meeting with Qatar’s Prime Minister could press December toward $88.51. Signs the talks have stalled could lift it toward $92.94. The EIA, OPEC, and IEA monthly reports follow Tuesday through Friday.
December nat gas at $3.05: A settlement above the two-day high would put December back inside its falling channel and could open the 20 day at $3.13. A settlement below Friday’s $2.93 low could stall the bounce and reopen the $2.84 contract low.
Energy Cross Asset Note
Crude is holding last week’s lows but hasn’t been able to bounce, as the weekend brought mixed signals on Iran. The president said extensive strikes are highly unlikely, but tied that to Iran signing a strong agreement. The Secretary of State played down the chances of a breakthrough, and the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island again overnight, according to Iranian state media. Qatar’s Prime Minister meets the president at the White House today as Qatar leads the mediation. Analysts describe the setup as increasingly binary: a deal could send prices sharply lower, and a return to fighting could send them sharply higher. More pressure for a deal does not necessarily mean a deal is closer. Attacks continue, with a tanker hit in Hormuz and Houthi rebels damaging Aramco’s offices in Riyadh. Supply keeps coming back anyway. OPEC output reached 88% of prewar volumes last month, and Iraq says it agreed with the US on an export lane through Hormuz. Iran’s production remains crushed by the blockade. Products are mixed: Russia’s Kirishi refinery is on fire after a drone strike, but Russian fuel flows hit a four-month high as diesel curbs eased. Brent is still up about 60% this year, and diesel has rallied even harder. The EIA, OPEC, and IEA all publish monthly outlooks this week, which will show how each is pricing a return of Gulf supply. In nat gas, a colder turn in forecasts and stronger demand are pushing December against resistance. LNG feedgas rose more than 5% on the week, exports to Mexico picked up, and total demand is running ahead of last year. Supply keeps rising too, with production more than 3% above last year and inventories moving further above normal. Much of the country still runs above normal through November 20. Asian LNG firmed on weak Hormuz flows, while European gas slid for the week on peace hopes. For clients, crude is sitting on support with a binary headline week ahead. That favors defined-risk positions over outright size. In nat gas, December has pressed the edge of its falling channel for two sessions without settling back inside. The next settlement decides whether this is a turn or a failed retest.
Crude Oil - The Setup
Crude Oil - The Technicals
CRUDE OIL
Current Price: December WTI (CLEZ26) $89.46, down $1.37 (1.51%) | Session high $91.42, low $89.29
Chart Setup
December edged up 31 cents Friday to settle at $90.83, inside a $89.07 to $92.53 range that again stalled under the 50 day. This morning it tested $91.42 and slipped to $89.29, holding above Friday’s low so far. The rising wedge from the August low is broken. Its lower edge, near $95.50, is now well overhead. December is boxed between support at $88.51 and the 50 day at $92.94, with the 20 day at $97.00 rolling over. Rising wedges that break often retrace toward where they began, which here is the low $70s, near the August low.
Key Levels Above
$95.50 (lower edge of the broken rising wedge)
$92.94 (50 day, with the late-September high at $92.90)
$92.53 (Friday high)
$91.42 (today’s high)
$90.83 (Friday settle)
Current Price: $89.46
Key Levels Below
$89.29 (today’s low)
$89.07 (Friday low)
$88.51 (June high, October lows)
$86.65 (last week’s low)
$86.00 (bottom of the October base)
Bias
Support at $88.51 is the level to manage against, with the 50 day at $92.94 as the ceiling. A settlement below $88.51 could open $86.65 and $86.00. Below that, chart support thins out until the 100 day at $82.53 and the $77.30 to $80.20 area. Holding above $88.51 would keep December rangebound, and only a settlement above the 50 day would show the bounce has legs. For sidelined traders, December is sitting near the bottom of its range ahead of a binary week of headlines. Waiting for a settlement outside $88.51 to $92.94 may carry less risk than guessing the outcome of the talks.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.09.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Crude Oil futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
Natural Gas - The Setup
Natural Gas - The Technicals
NATURAL GAS
Current Price: December Natural Gas (NGEZ26) $3.03, up 2.8 cents (0.93%) | Session high $3.05, low $2.99
Chart Setup
December rose 5.1 cents Friday to settle at $3.00. It traded to $3.04 at the lower edge of its falling channel but did not settle back inside. This morning it pushed to $3.05 at the same edge, now the third session pressing that line from underneath. The lows keep rising, from the $2.84 contract low to Friday’s $2.93 and today’s $2.99. Momentum is turning, but all four averages are still overhead, led by the 20 day at $3.13.
Key Levels Above
$3.23 (early-October low)
$3.13 (20 day)
$3.05 (today’s high, at the lower edge of the falling channel)
Current Price: $3.03
Key Levels Below
$3.00 (Friday settle)
$2.99 (today’s low)
$2.95 (Thursday settle)
$2.93 (Friday low)
$2.84 (contract low)
Bias
Today’s $3.05 high at the channel edge is the level to manage against. A settlement above it would put December back inside the channel and could open the 20 day at $3.13 and the early-October low at $3.23. A settlement below Friday’s $2.93 low would mean the retest failed and could reopen the $2.84 contract low. For sidelined traders, rising lows and stronger demand are working against rising production and above-normal storage. Buyers may want a settlement back inside the channel before trusting the turn. Sellers may want to see December fail at $3.05 again before stepping in.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.09.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Natural Gas futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
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