Carriage Services, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Carriage Services, Inc. (NYSE:CSV) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$100m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 29%, coming in at just US$0.56 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Carriage Services after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Carriage Services' five analysts is for revenues of US$439.2m in 2027. This would reflect a credible 5.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.0% to US$3.16. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$455.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.63 in 2027. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

View our latest analysis for Carriage Services

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 15% to US$43.20. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Carriage Services analyst has a price target of US$56.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$34.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Carriage Services' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.7% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.6% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Carriage Services is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Carriage Services' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Carriage Services going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Carriage Services has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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