U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Oil Drop Offsets Nvidia Slump on Huang Probe; Inflation Data Awaited

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ26) are up +0.57%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ26) are up +0.28% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street as lower oil prices modestly improved investor risk appetite, though gains were tempered by a sharp drop in Nvidia shares.

The price of WTI crude fell over -2% on Monday as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict pressed ahead despite renewed attacks in the region. U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with CNN on Sunday that additional U.S. strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” as long as talks over Tehran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz made progress. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia came under a series of missile and drone attacks over the weekend, while the U.S. reportedly carried out another strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island overnight.

On the negative side, Nvidia (NVDA) sank over -4% in pre-market trading after the company’s board announced an investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted in a foreign espionage operation involving an intimate relationship with an industry executive suspected of working for Chinese intelligence. An exchange-traded fund tracking semiconductor stocks fluctuated in pre-market trading.

This week, investors will focus on key U.S. inflation data, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and earnings reports from several high-profile companies.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended mostly higher, supported by strong jobs data and a modest rebound in chipmakers. Chip and AI infrastructure stocks recovered some ground after Thursday’s rout, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surging over +11% and Lam Research (LRCX) climbing more than +8%. Also, cloud-computing stocks advanced, with Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) rising over +7% and CoreWeave (CRWV) gaining more than +6%. In addition, Airbnb (ABNB) jumped over +11% and was among the top percentage gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the vacation rental company reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) tumbled more than -16% after the software company issued FQ2 revenue guidance that disappointed investors.

The Labor Department’s report released on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 165K in October, exceeding expectations of 65K. Also, the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1% in October, compared with expectations of no change at 4.2%. In addition, U.S. October average hourly earnings rose +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 51.0 in November, stronger than expectations of 48.1.

“While the strong employment [data] is good news for household spending and company earnings, it also gives the Federal Reserve greater scope to raise rates as inflation remains elevated,” said Lale Akoner at eToro.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that inflation remains “absolutely too high” and that monetary policy “does have a critical role in making sure that these relative price shocks don’t translate into broader or more persistent inflation.” Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further interest-rate hikes would likely be necessary to curb inflation, but it was too early to determine how much higher rates would need to go. In addition, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said policymakers must remain alert to the risk that the AI infrastructure buildout could fuel inflation in the near term.

U.S. rate futures are currently pricing in an 80.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike and a 19.5% probability of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s December meeting.

The U.S. consumer inflation report for October will take center stage this week, testing market bets on another Fed interest-rate hike next month. Economists expect the consumer price index to rise +0.3% m/m in October, following a +0.6% m/m gain in September, the largest increase since April. Core inflation is forecast to rise +0.2% m/m, which would mark the smallest increase in three months. Notably, the Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t release year-over-year figures because it did not publish the October 2025 CPI report due to the federal government shutdown. The U.S. October producer price index will also attract attention, with the report expected to highlight persistent inflationary pressures facing businesses. Other noteworthy data releases include existing home sales and initial jobless claims.

Market participants will also pay close attention to remarks from Fed officials. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michael Barr, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, New York Fed President John Williams, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins are all scheduled to speak this week.

Third-quarter corporate earnings season is approaching the finish line, but several prominent companies are due to report this week, including Cisco Systems (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Nebius Group (NBIS), CoreWeave (CRWV), Cerebras Systems (CBRS), and Constellation Energy (CEG). Results from neocloud providers CoreWeave and Nebius will be closely watched following last Thursday’s brutal selloff in AI stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies are expected to post an average +31% jump in third-quarter earnings from a year earlier.

Elsewhere, Anthropic is reportedly poised to launch its formal IPO roadshow this week, with a Nasdaq debut targeted for the week of Nov. 16.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. wholesale inventories data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists anticipate that the final September figure will remain unrevised at +0.6% m/m.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.87%, up +0.02%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.85% this morning, supported by strength in bank and technology stocks as well as lower oil prices. Banks led the advance on Monday as a proposed tie-up between Credit Agricole and Banco BPM, along with strong results from UniCredit, boosted the sector. Banco BPM (BAMI.M.DX) surged over +10% after Credit Agricole proposed combining the Italian lender with its local unit, while UniCredit (UCG.M.DX) climbed more than +5% after reporting upbeat Q3 results and raising its full-year profit targets. Technology stocks also advanced, supported by a gain of more than +1% in software maker SAP SE (SAP.D.DX) following an upgrade to Overweight from JPMorgan, as well as strength in chip-related shares. At the same time, consumer-related, real estate, and telecom stocks underperformed. A survey released on Monday showed that investor sentiment in the Eurozone slipped in November. Separately, data showed that German monthly exports surged in September, providing some relief to manufacturers following a turbulent summer, but even stronger growth in imports narrowed the country’s trade surplus. Meanwhile, Eurozone government bond yields rose on Monday, reversing earlier declines as investors refocused on economic fundamentals and the prospect of a December interest-rate hike by the European Central Bank. Investor focus this week is on the second estimate of third-quarter Eurozone GDP and preliminary third-quarter employment figures. Final October inflation figures from Germany, France, and Spain will also draw attention. In addition, several ECB policymakers are scheduled to speak this week, including President Christine Lagarde, Chief Economist Philip Lane, and Executive Board member Frank Elderson.

Germany’s Exports, Germany’s Imports, and Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence Index were released today.

The German September Exports rose +2.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

The German September Imports rose +4.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

The Eurozone November Sentix Investor Confidence Index came in at 2.4, stronger than expectations of 2.1.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index ($CHSC) closed up +0.32%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ($NKY) closed up +2.33%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as sentiment improved after Beijing pledged to strengthen market-stabilization measures. China’s State Council vowed on Friday to strengthen mechanisms aimed at stabilizing the capital market and bolstering the stock market’s “inherent stability,” state broadcaster CCTV reported. The remarks from China’s highest administrative body came after a series of support measures unveiled by financial regulators, suggesting that stock market volatility is drawing attention at the highest levels of government. Investors also digested the country’s latest inflation data. The National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that China’s producer inflation accelerated in October to its fastest pace since June 2022 as soaring energy prices continued to drive up production costs, while consumer inflation eased more than expected amid sluggish consumption. Elsewhere, China said on Monday that it would extend the suspension of an additional 24% tariff on U.S. goods for another two months while maintaining a blanket 10% levy on imports from the country. Investor attention now turns to China’s trade data for October, scheduled for release on Tuesday, which will provide further insight into external demand.

The Chinese October CPI was unchanged m/m and rose +0.7% y/y, compared with expectations of no change m/m and +0.8% y/y.

The Chinese October PPI rose +5.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +5.3% y/y.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, following Friday’s rebound on Wall Street after a turbulent week marked by concerns about tighter AI industry regulation under a Democratic-controlled Congress. Gains were broad-based on Monday, with bank, conglomerate, and automobile stocks among the biggest winners. Chipmakers and other AI-related stocks, which carry significant weight in the Nikkei, also advanced, though their gains were more subdued as sentiment toward the AI trade remained fragile. The latest source of caution was Nvidia’s launch of an investigation into reports that CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted in a foreign espionage operation. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields rose on Monday, paring last week’s slump, which was driven by a brutal selloff in AI-related stocks that fueled demand for safe-haven assets. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said in Washington on Friday that the central bank expects underlying inflation to remain near its 2% target but acknowledged “some upside risks.” On the economic front, preliminary data showed that Japan’s leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, fell to a three-month low in September. In corporate news, Japan Tobacco cratered nearly -16% after Russia put all of the company’s local entities under temporary administration. Investor focus this week is on Japan’s October PPI and September household spending figures. Market participants will also scrutinize the BOJ’s summary of opinions from its October meeting for clues on the timing of further monetary tightening. In addition, BOJ board member Toichiro Asada is scheduled to deliver a speech this week. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -8.43% at 40.84.

The Japanese September Leading Index stood at 116.4, weaker than expectations of 116.7.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) sank over -4% in pre-market trading after the company’s board announced an investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted in a foreign espionage operation involving an intimate relationship with an industry executive suspected of working for Chinese intelligence.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose more than +3% in pre-market trading after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to Outperform from Perform with a $600 price target.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - November 9th

Constellation Energy (CEG), KKR & Co. (KKR), Barrick Mining (B), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Skydance (SKYD), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Roivant Sciences (ROIV), Credicorp (BAP), NRG Energy (NRG), RB Global (RBA), CNH Industrial (CNH), Somnigroup International (SGI), Equinox Gold (EQX), JBS N.V. (JBS), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Lineage (LINE), Affiliated Managers Group (AMG), Onto Innovation (ONTO), TG Therapeutics (TGTX), Zeta Global Holdings (ZETA), Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX), Sanmina (SANM), Clearway Energy (CWEN), Qualys (QLYS), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), H&R Block (HRB), Immunovant (IMVT), Casella Waste Systems (CWST), The Trade Desk (TTD), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), RadNet (RDNT), NexGen Energy (NXE), Intercorp Financial Services (IFS), Novanta (NOVT), AAON, Inc. (AAON), Definium Therapeutics (DFTX), Kodiak Gas Services (KGS), AbCellera Biologics (ABCL), Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE), Life360 (LIF), EquipmentShare.com (EQPT), monday.com (MNDY), National Health Investors (NHI), Tidewater (TDW), Archer Aviation (ACHR), DHT Holdings (DHT), USA Rare Earth (USAR), Via Transportation (VIA), Fervo Energy Company (FRVO), GCM Grosvenor (GCMG), CECO Environmental (CECO), MARA Holdings (MARA), Csquare (CSQR), Select Water Solutions (WTTR), Zymeworks (ZYME), Trevi Therapeutics (TRVI), Plug Power (PLUG), National Energy Services Reunited (NESR), Goosehead Insurance (GSHD), Kemper (KMPR), GeneDx Holdings (WGS), Pacira BioSciences (PCRX), Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL), Quantum Computing (QUBT), Global Ship Lease (GSL), Sharplink (SBET), Greenfire Resources (GFR), Turning Point Brands (TPB), Dole plc (DOLE), WEBTOON Entertainment (WBTN), Lucid Group (LCID), Uniti Group (UNIT), Digital Turbine (APPS), Securitize (SECZ), Ameresco (AMRC), Target Hospitality (TH), Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), Harrow (HROW).

On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.