Financial Report Forecast | As Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)'s revenue rises, profit pressure still needs to be broken, and the fog of Neutron's extension gradually dissipates

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) will announce the results for the third quarter of 2026 after the US stock market on November 9 (Monday). The market currently believes that opportunities in launch services, spacecraft manufacturing, and national security projects will boost Rocket Lab's third-quarter revenue growth, and its vertical integration capabilities will also provide additional support for continued investment and long-term business expansion. At the same time, although Rocket Lab announced another delay in the launch of Neutron last month, after disclosing the latest developments in the rocket project, retail investors believe that the impact of the delay is already reflected in stock prices and are betting that the stock will rise after the announcement of earnings reports.

Third quarter results forecast

According to Koyfin's data, the market currently expects Rocket Lab's third-quarter revenue to grow nearly 66% year over year to US$257 million, with a GAAP loss of US$0.08 per share. The above revenue forecast is within the range of US$250 million to US$265 million previously given by Rocket Lab. The company also expects adjusted EBITDA losses to be between $17 million and $23 million, and has a record backlog of $2.36 billion in orders.

Rocket Lab is strengthening its growth prospects as defense demand grows, launch order backlog expands, and opportunities in launch services, spacecraft manufacturing, and national security projects continue to grow. Rocket Lab operates through two business divisions: Space Systems (Space Systems) is responsible for developing and supplying satellite and spacecraft components; Launch Services (Launch Services) provides exclusive rocket launch services. The space systems division is the company's revenue driver, and the launch services division remains the key to the company's long-term growth.

The space systems business has now become Rocket Lab's largest source of revenue. In the second quarter of 2026, the division achieved revenue of US$189.48 million, up from US$97.85 million in the same period last year. In contrast, the launch services sector achieved revenue of $44.59 million, down from $46.65 million a year ago. The space systems business is also leading in terms of gross profit. In the second quarter of 2026, the division's gross profit reached US$65.47 million, more than three times that of the launch services division's US$19.11 million.

The backlog of orders also reflects the gap between the two major business divisions. As of June 30, 2026, the space systems sector had an order backlog of US$1.42 billion, while the launch services division had a backlog of US$940.2 million.

However, the increase in revenue due to the increase in the number of launch missions, and the successive contributions of revenue from orders received in previous quarters, are expected to support the revenue of the launch service sector. Rocket Lab's third-quarter results may benefit from the company's GHOST (Global Hypersonic and Orbital Space Port Technology) deployable launch system released in August 2026. The system enables Electron and HAST rockets to be launched from new locations around the world, supporting multiple launch missions and time-sensitive national security missions. Its rapid deployment capabilities and flexible launch arrangements are expected to further solidify Rocket Lab's position in the defense and government markets and create opportunities for additional contracts in the field of missile defense testing and autonomous space missions.

It's worth mentioning that Rocket Lab's cost per launch has dropped somewhat. In the second quarter, the company's single launch cost was US$4.4 million, down from US$5 million in the second quarter of 2025 and US$7.5 million in the first quarter of 2023. As companies carry out more launch missions, lower launch costs help improve profit margins.

However, Rocket Lab's continued investment in the Neutron rocket project, as well as an increase in R&D expenses and a possible further increase in operating expenses, may put pressure on operating margins and limit overall profit growth. Supplier capacity restrictions and revenue confirmation depending on project milestones may also slow the process of turning backlog orders into actual revenue, and cause quarterly profit performance to fluctuate.

The impact of the pre-performance bulls betting on the delay of Neutron's first flight has been digested

In the middle of last month, Rocket Lab postponed the first flight plan for its new high-thrust rocket, Neutron, and delayed the first launch of the rocket until 2027. This is the latest in a series of delays for the Neutron project. Approaching the launch preparation stage, the company discovered a new problem in the rocket fuel tank manufacturing process, which caused this delay.

Rocket Lab currently mainly operates a rocket called Electron, which focuses on launching small satellites into orbit. Neutron, on the other hand, is positioned as a launch vehicle with greatly upgraded performance, which can carry heavier loads and compete more directly with the Falcon 9 (Falcon 9) rocket, which is dominated by SpaceX (SPCX.US).

According to reports, Rocket Lab had previously planned to complete the first launch of Neutron by the end of 2026. However, the company hinted in August that it would be quite challenging for the rocket to make its first flight this year.

Neutron has been delayed many times during the development cycle. When Rocket Lab first announced the rocket plan in 2021, it planned to complete the first flight in 2024; however, the launch was delayed over and over again, first until 2025, and then until this year.

2026 will continue to see twists and turns for Neutron R&D. In January of this year, a Neutron propellant tank broke during testing. The company said the accident was due to a product defect caused by a third-party manufacturer. After the incident, the company changed a new manufacturing process and revised part of the design, but a new problem occurred: the previously manufactured dome formed tiny air holes, or so-called “holes,” between the layers of carbon fiber composites. These defects appear in thicker parts added after design changes, which may weaken the overall structural strength.

Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said the team had successfully replicated the failure and added new processes to the production process to prevent bubbles from reappearing. However, it took a lot of time to investigate the fault and implement the repair plan, which ultimately delayed the launch until next year.

Rocket Lab recently stated on social media platform X: “The manufacturing and solidification of the Neutron Rocket Level 1 front dome has been completed.” This development means that the company has made progress in resolving issues related to the components that caused the rocket's most recent launch to be delayed. The dome has completed the heat press treatment cycle after leaving the automatic fiber laying equipment. Next, it will undergo analysis and material testing to confirm its quality and strength before entering the primary tank assembly phase.

The company aims to complete dome manufacturing and inspection by the first quarter of 2027, followed by first-class rocket assembly, hydraulic testing, and cryogenic testing during that quarter. Beck said completing these milestones will help Rocket Lab determine when to target an adjusted launch.

Beck said, “I'd rather show everyone the actual progress made in real time than give a date that may have to be taken back later.” He also pointed out that the long-term needs of customers are one of the reasons the company prioritizes ensuring reliability. “These customers understand that a reliable rocket is far more valuable than a rocket launched early, and we are very grateful for their trust in us.”

Additionally, Rocket Lab is preparing for the Electron rocket's 100th mission, called “The Mountain God Rises,” which is scheduled to be launched as early as November 14. This flight will launch a QPS-SAR satellite provided by Japan's QPS from launch site 1 and launch it into low Earth orbit 575 km from the ground.

On the retail investor platform Stocktwits, sentiment towards Rocket Lab has remained stable and “neutral.” Some users believe that Rocket Lab's stock price will rise sharply after the earnings report is announced, because the effects of the delay in the launch of the Neutron rocket have been digested by the market. Another user emphasized Rocket Lab's opportunities in the broader space service field, saying “Rocket Lab will become the 'Amazon' for B2B space services.”