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    TransMedics Group (TMDX) Could Be 14% Undervalued As Mixed Earnings Reignite Valuation Debate

    Simply Wall St·11/09/2026 05:22:21
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    Why TransMedics Group Stock Is Back In Focus

    TransMedics Group (TMDX) moved back onto investor radar after its 5 November third quarter update, which paired higher revenue with lower profitability compared with the same period last year.

    The earnings surprise has triggered a sharp short term swing, with a 1 day share price return of 27.92% and a 7 day share price return of 33.72% lifting TransMedics Group to US$88.24. This comes even though the year to date share price return is down 28.08% and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 25.95%. However, the 5 year total shareholder return of 229.01% shows longer term holders have still seen sizeable gains, suggesting momentum has only recently started to rebuild after a weaker patch.

    Scan beyond TransMedics Group and see how other healthcare stocks with strong recent moves and changing earnings trends line up in our curated 35 healthcare AI stocks today.

    After a jump like this and with TransMedics Group trading below the average analyst price target yet well above some intrinsic estimates, the real question is where fair value actually sits on that spectrum.

    Most Popular Narrative: 14% Undervalued

    On the analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St, TransMedics Group screens as undervalued, with a fair value of $102.55 against a last close of $88.24. That framework leans heavily on how much of the transplant services build out eventually turns into earnings power.

    Expansion into new organ types is moving forward as OCS Kidney is developed on the Gen 3.0 platform to address more than 21,000 deceased kidney transplants, about 9,200 discarded kidneys and 100,000 patients on the waiting list in the U.S. This could add a large new revenue stream and influence longer term earnings power.

    See why 85 investors see TransMedics Group as 14% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $102.55 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, the TransMedics Group story could wobble if higher operating spend on OCS Kidney fails to translate into stronger margins, or if ongoing legal investigations deepen.

    Find out about the key risks to this TransMedics Group narrative.

    Another View: TransMedics Group Through The P/E Lens

    There is a different reading of TransMedics Group when you look at the P/E ratio instead of analyst fair value targets. The stock trades on 21.2x earnings, compared with 25.7x for the US Medical Equipment industry and 26.7x for close peers, while the fair ratio sits higher at 32.1x. That gap points to room for re rating or a signal that expectations already carry less valuation risk than the sector, so which side of that trade off do you think matters more.

    See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    NasdaqGM:TMDX P/E Ratio as at Nov 2026
    NasdaqGM:TMDX P/E Ratio as at Nov 2026

    Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out TransMedics Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 39 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

    Next Steps

    Mixed messages around TransMedics Group can pull you in both directions. Move quickly to test the numbers, stress test the story and weigh both sides for yourself. For a concise rundown of what investors see as the main upside and downside drivers, start with these 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

    Hunting For More Ideas Beyond TransMedics Group?

    Do not stop with TransMedics Group. Use the screener to line up fresh ideas now so you are not chasing prices after the next move.