Earnings Update: Arctic Paper S.A. (WSE:ATC) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Arctic Paper S.A. (WSE:ATC) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.1% to zł4.98 in the week after its latest quarterly results. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, Arctic Paper's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of zł3.40b in 2027. This would be a notable 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Arctic Paper forecast to report a statutory profit of zł0.12 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of zł3.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł0.12 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Arctic Paper

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of zł6.15, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Arctic Paper analyst has a price target of zł6.30 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at zł6.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Arctic Paper is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that Arctic Paper's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 9.2% growth to the end of 2027 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 6.0% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.5% per year. Not only are Arctic Paper's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at zł6.15, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Arctic Paper going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Arctic Paper has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

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