Australian Stock Market Today: ASX Futures Edge Up As Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise

The Morning Bull - Australian Market Morning Update Monday, 9 Nov 2026

Australian shares are set for a mildly positive open, with SPI futures up around 20 points, as focus swings squarely to the US Federal Reserve. Strong US jobs data has revived the prospect of another rate hike.

October US non farm payrolls rose by 165,000 with unemployment at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% in October, the firmest wage print since January, reinforcing concerns about sticky inflation and higher for longer US policy settings.

Higher US wage pressure tends to push US bond yields up, which can lift global borrowing costs and narrow the relative appeal of Australian yields. That mix often supports the US$ against the A$, squeezing imported margins and tightening financial conditions for rate sensitive parts of the local market.

The open question now is whether incoming Fed speeches and upcoming US inflation data validate market pricing for a December hike or soften it. Australian investors effectively face a binary call on whether this latest US labour report marks a turning point in the global rates cycle or just another strong print in an already tight market.

Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

Fresh corporate interest is circling Ingenia Communities Group after Warburg Pincus and partners lifted their non binding offer to A$5.55 cash per stapled security plus up to A$0.05 in distribution, taking the headline proposal to A$5.60. The board views this as potentially superior under its process deed with AVID and has restarted due diligence access.

AVID now has until 10 November 2026 to match or top that proposal under its matching rights, while the Peet Limited scheme implementation deed still stands. You are looking at a live three way contest for Ingenia, with no certainty any binding deal lands.

Westgold Resources (WGX)

Westgold Resources is back in focus after management publicly criticised proposed capital gains tax changes for mineral explorers. Planned reforms would swap the long running 50% CGT discount for cost base indexation and introduce a 30% minimum tax on gains from 1 July 2027, without the exemptions given to technology start ups.

The concern from Westgold is straightforward. Less favourable tax treatment could reduce funding appetite for early stage exploration and affect the longer term pipeline of gold projects. Watch for further industry lobbying and any adjustment to the draft rules.

Evolution Mining (EVN)

Evolution Mining joins a growing group of producers pushing back on the same CGT overhaul. Industry leaders argue the proposed 30% minimum tax and removal of the 50% discount risk cooling investor interest in high risk drilling campaigns that feed future production.

For Evolution Mining, the key issue is capital availability for new discoveries rather than existing operations. Any shift in the final tax design or explicit concessions for explorers will be an important signal for longer term growth investment in the sector.

Top Movers

• Nine Entertainment Holdings (ASX:NEC) jumped 11.64% after an earnings update highlighted profit growth and margins at its premium masthead.
• European Lithium (ASX:EUR) gained 6.85% following completion of schemes that move the business under NASDAQ listed Critical Metals.
• NEXTDC (ASX:NXT) rose 5.58% as traders weighed recent stake building by Goodman Group and Digital Realty in the operator.

Top Losers

• New Murchison Gold (ASX:NMG) fell 10.94%.
• Lindian Resources (ASX:LIN) declined 10.71%.
• Minerals 260 (ASX:MI6) fell 8.54% after investors reacted to the A$250m follow on equity offering completed yesterday.

On The Radar

Australian traders face a tight cluster of local confidence data and heavyweight earnings, all filtered through a fresh run of US inflation prints and Fed speeches that could shift the A$ and rate expectations.

• Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, Tue 10 Nov. The index previously sat at 80.4 and the forecast is 78.3. A weaker result would underline household strain and keep pressure on discretionary retailers and housing exposed stocks.
• NAB Business Confidence, Tue 10 Nov. Sentiment in October previously printed at -13 with a forecast of -14. Any deeper drop would highlight softer hiring and capex plans, which tends to weigh on small caps and bank loan growth expectations.
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Wed 11 Nov. Q1 2027 numbers put the focus on margin trends and loan impairment charges. These feed directly into how investors think about dividends and valuation for the wider Australian banking sector.
• US CPI and Core CPI, Tue 10 Nov. Headline inflation previously ran at 3.7% year on year with core at 2.6% and forecasts near those levels. Any upside surprise would usually support the US$, pressure the A$ and lift global bond yields.
• Xero, Wed 11 Nov. First half 2027 results will hinge on subscription revenue growth and cost discipline in product and marketing. These signal how much room remains for reinvestment without crimping cash flow expectations for the software group.

Sector & Industry Watch

Energy and Oil and Gas Recent pullback after strong year

Energy and Oil and Gas have slipped over the past week, with 7 day returns down roughly 7%, after a strong run year to date and over 12 months. Softer global crude benchmarks are feeding into share prices, which matters if you rely on these producers for income or for inflation protection in your portfolio.

The next US crude inventory figures are the clear swing factor to watch. A sharp move in oil around that data can quickly shift revenue expectations for Australian producers and change fuel cost assumptions for airlines and transport heavy businesses.

Real Estate Short term gains against weak year

Real Estate has moved higher over the past week and month, with a firm 7 day gain and an even stronger 30 day rise, while 1 year and year to date returns remain in decline. Rate sensitive listed property groups are responding to the idea that interest rates may be close to their peak, which eases some pressure on heavily geared balance sheets.

If you hold REITs for income, keep an eye on the upcoming Australian home loans and investment lending for homes data on 11 November. Softer lending flows can flag pressure on residential demand and valuations, which can influence asset values and distribution policies across the sector.

Consumer Discretionary Bounce continues as households juggle rates

Consumer Discretionary has climbed over the past week and month while 1 year and year to date returns are still weaker, which suggests the move is more of a rebound than a clean uptrend. Retailers and auto groups are trading off between still decent store traffic and the drag from higher mortgage, fuel and energy bills on household budgets.

If your portfolio includes retailers or car dealers, tomorrow’s Westpac Consumer Confidence Index is the key check on spending appetite. A softer than expected reading would underline caution on big ticket and non essential purchases and can influence how companies frame Christmas trading and discounting plans.

Materials and Metals and Mining Miners firm as tax debate builds

Materials and Metals and Mining have edged ahead over the past week, after a weaker 30 day patch, with 12 month returns still in positive territory. The move is occurring while Westgold Resources and Evolution Mining respond to a pushback against proposed capital gains tax changes that industry executives argue could make early stage exploration funding less attractive.

If you own a basket of miners rather than a single stock, the federal government response to this lobbying effort is the main catalyst. Any adjustment to the planned capital gains tax rules for explorers can affect how easily new projects raise equity and how investors weigh exploration risk against established production.

Banks Recent rise faces confidence and arrears test

Banks have enjoyed a solid month with sector returns up, though the latest 7 day move is slightly softer and 1 year performance remains close to flat. Recent results from Westpac Banking and National Australia Bank show different readings on borrower health, and provisions for bad debts are now a central focus as the economy slows.

If you hold bank stocks for dividends, the NAB Business Confidence print on 10 November is the data point that could move sentiment. A weaker reading can feed into more cautious commentary from lenders on arrears and provisioning, which in turn can influence how boards think about future payout ratios even if current profits still look steady.

How To Act On Today's Market

If bank dividends and bad debt trends are what you care about after the latest Westpac and NAB updates, start with this list of 5 dividend fortresses in your next review.

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