Where Does Genius Sports (GENI) Value Sit After Raised Guidance?

Genius Sports has seen its share price fall sharply over the past few years, which puts a spotlight on whether the current market value lines up with what its sales can reasonably support. Investors now have to weigh a weaker recent share record against fresh company updates that influence how much revenue power they think they are paying for.

• Over the past 5 years the stock has declined 62.5%, so the market has already repriced the business and that reset frames how investors judge its sales today.
• Recent guidance for higher future revenue and adjusted EBITDA suggests the company may support different expectations for sales scale and profitability than the share price trend alone might imply.
• Your read on Genius Sports is one view; the desks covering it have another. See what analysts think Genius Sports's shares could be worth.

The stock's next move may depend on whether Genius Sports' current price can be explained by its sales relative to what investors consider a fair ratio.

If you want to test the same sales versus price question across a broader set of companies, run the numbers on the 38 high quality undervalued stocks.

Has Genius Sports Run Too Far on Sales?

P/S fits Genius Sports because the business is still being valued more on revenue potential than on current earnings. On this metric, the stock trades on a P/S of about 1.8x, compared with roughly 1.4x for the wider hospitality group and about 1.2x across closer peers.

That premium screens as overvalued against a tailored fair multiple that already bakes in Genius Sports' growth profile, risk level and market position. Despite the higher 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance raising confidence in the top line, the current P/S still prices the shares above what this framework treats as a balanced trade off between sales, profitability and execution risk. Explore the numbers behind Genius Sports's P/S valuation.

The Genius Sports Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

Genius Sports' valuation puzzle raises a simple question that Simply Wall St Narratives aims to answer: which assumptions about future growth, margins and earnings would need to hold for the stock to be priced meaningfully higher or lower than it is today? Each scenario links a fair value to a clear story about Genius Sports' potential catalysts and downside risks, so you can track over time which version of events is getting closer to reality on the Community page.

One of the top community narratives on Genius Sports: 64% undervalued

"Legend’s large owned audience and early cross-sell into prediction markets create room for Genius Sports to replace more third party media spend…"

Discover why this Narrative puts Genius Sports at 64% undervalued.

An unanswered question on Genius Sports that could change the picture

Valuation only tells part of the story for Genius Sports, because Simply Wall St checks have also highlighted potential pressure points that readers may want to review before forming a view. Take a closer look at 1 warning sign before settling on a valuation.

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