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Trisura Group Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
It's shaping up to be a tough period for Trisura Group Ltd. (TSE:TSU), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CA$802m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 25%, coming in at just CA$0.54 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Trisura Group's seven analysts is for revenues of CA$3.45b in 2027. This reflects a satisfactory 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 13% to CA$3.46. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$3.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$3.47 in 2027. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.
See our latest analysis for Trisura Group
The average price target was steady at CA$55.28even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Trisura Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$60.00 and the most bearish at CA$50.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Trisura Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Trisura Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Trisura Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Trisura Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Trisura Group analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Trisura Group Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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