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REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) Analysts Are Pretty Bullish On The Stock After Recent Results
Investors in REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.8% to close at US$7.62 following the release of its third-quarter results. Revenues of US$9.2m missed forecasts by 14%, but at least statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with per-share losses of US$0.62 coming in 53% smaller than what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the eight analysts covering REGENXBIO are now predicting revenues of US$212.0m in 2027. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 38% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 4.2% to US$2.54 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$205.0m and losses of US$2.66 per share in 2027. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for REGENXBIO
The consensus price target rose 5.2% to US$24.55, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on REGENXBIO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$50.00 and the most bearish at US$12.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that REGENXBIO's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 29% growth to the end of 2027 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 25% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 22% annually. So it looks like REGENXBIO is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple REGENXBIO analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with REGENXBIO (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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