Earnings Miss: Gibraltar Industries, Inc. Missed EPS By 36% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a mediocre week for Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROCK) shareholders, with the stock dropping 19% to US$32.47 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.69, some 36% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$480m. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Gibraltar Industries after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Gibraltar Industries' four analysts is for revenues of US$1.87b in 2027. This reflects a solid 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 179% to US$4.48. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.91b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.56 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Gibraltar Industries

The consensus price target fell 14% to US$65.00, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Gibraltar Industries analyst has a price target of US$84.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$50.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Gibraltar Industries shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Gibraltar Industries is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 13% annualised growth until the end of 2027. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.9% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.5% per year. Not only are Gibraltar Industries' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Gibraltar Industries. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Gibraltar Industries going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Gibraltar Industries has 3 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

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