Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 39%

As you might know, Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) just kicked off its latest third-quarter results with some very strong numbers. Statutory earnings beat expectations, with revenues of US$3.1b coming in a massive 39% ahead of forecasts, while earnings per share (eps) of US$7.11 beat expectations by 7.7%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering Par Pacific Holdings is for revenues of US$8.21b in 2027. This implies a not inconsiderable 15% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 31% to US$13.03 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$8.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.03 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Par Pacific Holdings

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$95.25, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Par Pacific Holdings analyst has a price target of US$117 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$85.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2027. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 0.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Par Pacific Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Par Pacific Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Par Pacific Holdings has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

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