Coffee Stain Group AB (publ) Just Missed EPS By 25%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Coffee Stain Group AB (publ) (STO:COFFEE B) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.7% to kr19.10 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at kr0.04, some 25% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at kr267m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Coffee Stain Group after the latest results.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering Coffee Stain Group is for revenues of kr1.05b in 2027. This implies a perceptible 2.1% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr1.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr0.58 in 2027. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Coffee Stain Group

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of kr25.58. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Coffee Stain Group at kr32.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr18.50. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.1% annualised decline to the end of 2027. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.2% over the last year. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.0% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Coffee Stain Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Coffee Stain Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

We have estimates for Coffee Stain Group from its six analysts out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Coffee Stain Group you should know about.

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