Daicel Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

A week ago, Daicel Corporation (TSE:4202) came out with a strong set of interim numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 6.6% to hit JP¥160b. Daicel also reported a statutory profit of JP¥35.58, which was an impressive 171% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Daicel's eight analysts are forecasting 2027 revenues to be JP¥619.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 242% to JP¥132. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥619.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥132 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Daicel

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥1,561, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Daicel analyst has a price target of JP¥2,400 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,260. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Daicel's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 5.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Daicel is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Daicel going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Daicel that you need to take into consideration.

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