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MediPal Holdings Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Last week, you might have seen that MediPal Holdings Corporation (TSE:7459) released its half-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to JP¥3,194 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥45.82, some 42% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥980b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Following last week's earnings report, MediPal Holdings' five analysts are forecasting 2027 revenues to be JP¥3.94t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 19% to JP¥253. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥3.94t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥253 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
View our latest analysis for MediPal Holdings
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,145. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on MediPal Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,600 and the most bearish at JP¥2,900 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MediPal Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MediPal Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 2.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 3.8% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than MediPal Holdings.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MediPal Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MediPal Holdings going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see our analysis of MediPal Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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