Earnings Beat: Pigeon Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

A week ago, Pigeon Corporation (TSE:7956) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.7% to hit JP¥30b. Pigeon also reported a statutory profit of JP¥29.99, which was an impressive 49% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, Pigeon's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥125.2b in 2027. This would be an okay 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 9.6% to JP¥94.83. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥125.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥94.04 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Pigeon

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,308. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Pigeon, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,600 and the most bearish at JP¥1,900 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Pigeon shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Pigeon'shistorical trends, as the 5.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 is roughly in line with the 4.6% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.3% per year. So although Pigeon is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Pigeon going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Pigeon that you should be aware of.

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