ONE Gas (OGS) Could Be 5% Undervalued On Raised 2026 EPS Guidance

ONE Gas (OGS) has investors’ attention after third quarter earnings, updated 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of US$4.95 to US$5.01, and an affirmed quarterly dividend of US$0.68 per share, which together signaled management confidence.

ONE Gas shares trade at US$80.92, after a recent upswing that includes an 11.38% one-month share price return and a 4.52% year-to-date share price gain, while the 3-year total shareholder return of 49.83% points to stronger long-term momentum.

Compare ONE Gas’s earnings guidance and dividend profile with a curated set of income-focused utilities and infrastructure stocks screened as 8 dividend fortresses to see what else matches your criteria.

ONE Gas has just rerated on fresh guidance, yet the shares still sit between an intrinsic value estimate below US$80 and an analyst target above US$85. Which reference point deserves more weight now?

Most Popular Narrative: 5% Undervalued

ONE Gas is trading at $80.92, compared with a widely followed narrative fair value of about $85.17 that leans on regulated earnings and capital plans.

The capital intensive system integrity and expansion plan, including roughly US$800 million of 2026 investments and about US$4.3b over five years with projects such as the 43 mile Western Farmers pipeline, is set to increase the regulated rate base and can support future net income and EPS as these assets enter service.

See why 0 investors see ONE Gas as 5% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $85.17 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the ONE Gas story can change quickly if heavy capital spending outpaces future rate relief, or if operating costs stay elevated against management’s 3 to 4% O&M target.

Find out about the key risks to this ONE Gas narrative.

Another View: ONE Gas Through A Cash Flow Lens

That 5% undervalued fair value narrative clashes with the SWS DCF model, which points to a future cash flow value of $67.80 per share against ONE Gas at $80.92. On that basis the stock screens as overvalued, so which signal do you trust more: earnings power or cash generation?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ONE Gas for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 39 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Mixed signals or growing conviction. Either way, ONE Gas now has clear risks and clear potential rewards, so move quickly and weigh both sides with the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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