EN
UroGen Pharma Ltd. Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Shareholders in UroGen Pharma Ltd. (NASDAQ:URGN) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 24% to US$24.75 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.03 per share on revenues of US$89m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from UroGen Pharma's seven analysts is for revenues of US$539.7m in 2027. This would reflect a major 116% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with UroGen Pharma forecast to report a statutory profit of US$2.76 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$522.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.76 in 2027. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small lift in to revenue forecasts.
View our latest analysis for UroGen Pharma
The consensus price target increased 5.9% to US$61.71, with an improved revenue forecast carrying the promise of a more valuable business, in time. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic UroGen Pharma analyst has a price target of US$75.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$56.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await UroGen Pharma shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting UroGen Pharma's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 85% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 28% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 21% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect UroGen Pharma to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for UroGen Pharma going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with UroGen Pharma (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.