What ING Groep Bulls Got Right

If you only skimmed ING Groep headlines about rising fee income, green finance and yet another buyback, the real punchline might surprise you. Holding ING Groep from the start of the year would have returned 23.3%, including dividends. If you had been weighing that decision on 1 January 2026, with analysts split on fair value and macro risks on every page, what exactly were you being paid to believe about this bank’s shift away from pure lending?

ING Groep has already moved. See which of 228 high quality undervalued stocks still trade below our estimates.

The Argument You Would Have Been Weighing On ING Groep

The shares cost €24.01 at the start of the period, so any view on ING Groep had to start with what that price already assumed about fee income and green finance.

The bullish story put fair value at €27.92, a rough estimate of what the stock might be worth if revenue growth reached 9.0% and profit margins settled at 28.0% over three years.

The more cautious view saw fair value at €22.2, based on expectations of 8.9% revenue growth and a 27.1% margin while tighter regulation and margin pressure kept a lid on long term returns.

What The Evidence Did To The ING Groep Thesis

ING Groep’s global subscription banking rollout across nine markets, along with fee-rich moves such as the Singular Bank stake and the Goldman Sachs TFI buyout, clearly leaned toward the optimistic case that ING could rely less on pure lending. Q3 2026 figures showed revenue and profit both higher than Q3 2025, while net margin slipped slightly from 32.1% to 31.8%, so the evidence cut both ways.

The clear hinge here was whether fee-driven products and capital actions actually showed up in reported income and not just in presentations. For a different bank, you would test the same claim by tracking fee and commission lines, plus buyback execution, against past assumptions on margins and capital ratios each quarter.

What ING Groep’s Run Has You Paying For Now

ING Groep trades at €28.72, with this Narrative’s Fair Value sitting above that level based on a more optimistic reading of its earnings power.

The argument leans on stickier mobile-led relationships, wider use of AI and a bigger fee mix. A buyer today must judge whether mobile-first customers really keep deepening product use enough to support that higher figure.

"Rapid growth in mobile primary customers, with more than 1 million added over the past 12 months, supports deeper relationships, higher product penetration and higher income per customer, which can be supportive for revenue and earnings."

One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its higher Fair Value, assumptions and all

How Could You Get There Earlier?

You may be late to this rally, but that does not have to mean arriving late to every opportunity. Start with companies whose prices leave room for a different view of their future. Here are three trading below our estimates.

• Company 1 - 15% below our estimate - focuses on selling tiltrotators into markets where most excavator operators still lack them.
• Company 2 - 40% below our estimate - rebuilds demand after a supply disruption while gaming and video collaboration lead revenue.
• Company 3 - 20% below our estimate - grows use of antibiotic-eluting bone grafts as surgeons expand infection driven procedures.

Three companies from the same screener. Open all 192 companies with the balance sheet to back it up →

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