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Moderna Turns a Profit as R&D Spending Falls: Rapid Earnings Reaction
Key Points
Revenue jumped 29% on international COVID vaccine sales tied to long-term government deals.
Moderna raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15% to 25%.
A Phase 3 win for its cancer vaccine with Merck may matter more than the quarter itself.
Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) earned $162 million in the third quarter, a sharp turn from a $200 million loss a year earlier. Moderna stock rose about 8% in regular trading Friday morning. The profit is real, but it landed in Moderna's peak vaccine season, and lower research spending did more of the work than higher sales.
Key numbers
- Revenue: about $1.3 billion, up 29% from about $1.0 billion.
- GAAP diluted EPS: $0.38, versus a loss of $0.51 per share.
- Research and development expense: $583 million, down 27% from a year ago.
- 2026 revenue growth outlook: 15% to 25%, up from up to 10%.
What it means
The third quarter is when fall COVID shots ship, so it is Moderna's strongest season. Sales grew on international vaccine deliveries under long-term government deals. But research costs fell as late-stage infectious disease trials wound down, and that saving did more for profit than the extra sales. Over the first nine months, Moderna still lost about $2 billion.
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The year-end cash forecast jumped, but most of that comes from about $2.6 billion in convertible notes sold in September, not from the business. Convertible debt can turn into shares later, though Moderna bought capped calls to limit that dilution.
This quarter doesn't change the long-term picture much. Revenue still rides on COVID shots. What could change it is intismeran, a cancer vaccine Moderna is developing with Merck. In a Phase 3 trial, it cut the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% compared with Merck's drug alone.
What to watch next
Watch for Moderna and Merck to file intismeran with regulators. Also watch whether pivotal data in propionic acidemia, a rare disease, arrives in 2026 as Moderna expects.
David Kretzmann has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Moderna. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.